134
Risk to Liquidity
The
Corporation’s
liquidity
may
come
under
pressure
if
it
experiences
significant
unexpected
cash
outflows
due
to
deposit
withdrawals, which could arise
from various factors like
economic conditions, loss of
depositor confidence, competition, exogenous
events, regulatory requirements or changes, a
downgrade in credit rating, or other events
causing counterparties to avoid exposure.
Investors should refer to Liquidity Risks section of “Part I, Item 1A”
of 2025 Form 10-K for an additional discussion of liquidity
risks to
which the Corporation is subject.
Credit Risk
Geographic and Government Risk
The Corporation is exposed to geographic and government risk.
The Corporation’s assets and revenue composition by geographical
area and by
business segment reporting are
presented in Note
32 to the
Consolidated Financial Statements. Readers should
refer
to
Economic
and
Market
Risk
section
and
Business
Risk
Section
of
“Part
I,
Item
1A”
of
the
2025
Form
10-K
for
an
additional
discussion
on
how
the
Corporation is
impacted
by
global
and
local
economic
and
market
conditions, including
weakness
in
the
economy,
particularly in Puerto
Rico, where a
significant portion of
our business is
concentrated. This section
also addresses how
our credit risk and credit
losses can increase to the extent
our loans are concentrated on borrowers engaged in
the same or similar
activities or in borrowers who as a group
may be uniquely or disproportionately affected by certain
economic or market conditions.
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico
A
significant portion
of
our financial
activities and
credit
exposure is
concentrated in
the
Commonwealth of
Puerto Rico
(“Puerto
Rico”) which has faced severe economic and fiscal
challenges in the past and may face additional
challenges in the future.
The latest estimates from the
Puerto Rico Planning Board (the
“Planning Board”) indicate that real
GNP grew by 2.1%
during fiscal
year
2024
(July 2023-June
2024) and
by
1.1% in
fiscal
year
2025 (July
2024-June 2025).
For fiscal
year 2026
(July
2025-June
2026),
the
Planning
Board
forecasts
more
modest
GNP
growth
of
0.5%.
Meanwhile,
the
Puerto
Rico
Economic
Activity
Index
reflected a 1.1% year-over-year increase in December 2025, with no change on a month-over-month basis. While this index is not a
direct measure of real GNP, it serves as an indicator of ongoing economic activity.
In 2021
and 2022,
inflation rose
sharply in
the U.S.
and Puerto
Rico due
to post-pandemic
demand and supply
chain disruptions.
Inflation
began
to
decrease
by
mid-2022
as
the
Federal
Reserve
raised
interest
rates,
largely
stabilizing
by
September
2024,
leading to a
series of rate
reductions by the Federal
Reserve for the
first time in
four years. As
of March 2026, the
U.S. Consumer
Price Index
reflected a
3.3% year-over-year increase,
which, while below
peak 2022
levels, remains above
the Federal
Reserve’s
2% target. The year-over-year
increase accelerated from 2.4%
in February 2026 to
3.3% in March
2026, primarily driven by
higher
energy and
gasoline prices
resulting from
the recent
geopolitical conflict involving
Iran. In
Puerto Rico,
the Consumer
Price Index
reflected a year-over-year
increase of 2.5%
in March 2026,
up from 2.3%
in February 2026.
It is still
too early to
determine the full
extent to which the conflict involving Iran and its
indirect impacts may impact the global and Puerto
Rico economies.
Fiscal Challenges of Puerto Rico and its Municipalities
As
Puerto Rico’s
economy contracted
in the
2000s, public
debt
increased rapidly
due to
borrowing to
cover
deficits to
pay
debt
service, pension benefits,
and other expenditures.
By 2016, the
government had over
$120 billion in
combined debt and
unfunded
pension liabilities, lost access to capital markets, and
faced a fiscal crisis.
In
response,
the
U.S.
Congress
enacted
PROMESA
in
June
2016.
PROMESA
established
an
Oversight
Board
with
significant
control over Puerto Rico’s
fiscal and economic affairs,
including those of its public
corporations, instrumentalities and municipalities
(collectively, “PR Government Entities”).
In August 2025, President Donald J. Trump dismissed six of the seven members of
the Oversight Board, reportedly due to inefficient
leadership and excessive spending. Three of the dismissed members subsequently filed suit in federal
court challenging the legality