Current FY 2014 forecast ($ in millions)
| FYE November 30 | Low | High | Midpoint | |||||||||||||
| Non-GAAP Revenue |
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| FY 2014 guidance1 |
$ | 1,057 | $ | 1,072 | $ | 1,065 | ||||||||||
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| Current FY 2014 forecast |
$ | 1,065 | $ | 1,089 | $ | 1,077 | ||||||||||
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| % change |
0.8 | % | 1.6 | % | 1.2 | % | ||||||||||
| Memo: FY 2013 non-GAAP revenue |
$ | 1,070 | ||||||||||||||
| EBITDA |
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| Current FY 2014 forecast |
$ | 205 | $ | 220 | $ | 213 | ||||||||||
| Total Subscription Bookings (ACV) |
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| Q4 FY 2014 New Subscription Bookings (ACV) forecast |
$ | 10 | $ | 14 | $ | 12 | ||||||||||
| • Current forecast reflects expectations based on Q4 deal pipeline | ||
| • $10–14 million of subscription bookings in Q4 (the majority of which are expected to occur in November), yielding a minimal amount of recognized revenue in FY14 (full contract revenue will be recognized in FY15 and onwards) | ||
| Commentary |
• We are forecasting Spotfire to contribute ~$6.5 million ACV (annual contract value) subscription bookings by the end of the fiscal year; our initial observation is that we expect subscription revenue to be equivalent to license in ~3 to 3.5 years2 | |
| • Despite causing short-term lags in software revenue growth, subscription contracts create long-term value for the company in the form of highly recurring, very high margin revenue streams with high retention rates (87%+ historically) | ||
| • Based on current subscription forecast, TIBCO should enter FY15 with $65 million+ of run-rate subscription revenue | ||
| 1 | Disclosed as part of the Q3 earnings call on 9/18/2014 |
| 2 | The equivalent license revenue would have been ~$19.5 million, of which ~90% would have resulted in incremental EBITDA |
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