 Updated Forecast
2015-2017
April 15, 2015
Confidential: Subject to NDA
|
| Updated Forecast
2015-2017
April 15, 2015
Confidential: Subject to NDA
|
 Privileged & Confidential
Prepared at the Request of
Counsel
Subject to FRE 408
UPDATED
FORECAST
-
U.K.
CASH
FLOWS
2
Confidential: Subject to NDA
U.K. CASH FLOWS
Note
1:
Note
2:
Note
3:
Note
4:
Note
5:
Note
6:
Note
7:
Note
8:
UK Cash Flow
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY 2015
FY 2016
FY 2017
Net Revenue
52,781
$
50,900
$
39,118
$
55,340
$
198,139
$
204,841
$
217,572
$
Operating Expense
19,580
20,420
17,810
20,061
77,872
78,374
79,167
Net Operating Cash Flow
33,201
$
30,479
$
21,308
$
35,278
$
120,267
$
126,467
$
138,405
$
General & Administrative
-
679
1,018
1,018
2,716
4,950
4,800
EBITDA
33,201
$
29,800
$
20,289
$
34,260
$
117,551
$
121,517
$
133,605
$
Restructuring Costs
-
$
1,500
$
-
$
-
$
1,500
$
-
$
-
$
Capex
12,617
32,589
10,386
8,683
64,274
87,321
46,690
Tax Expense
13,936
4,181
(8,576)
-
9,541
360
61
Interest
12,100
12,100
12,100
12,100
48,400
48,400
46,709
LC Funding
-
-
-
20,000
20,000
-
-
Debt Amortization
-
-
-
-
-
-
44,122
Working Capital / Other
4,452
-
-
-
4,452
-
-
Total UK Cash Flow
(1,000)
$
(20,569)
$
6,380
$
(6,523)
$
(21,712)
$
(14,565)
$
(3,978)
$
Ending UK Cash
49,000
$
28,431
$
34,811
$
28,288
$
28,288
$
13,723
$
9,745
$
Ending US Cash
17,000
$
3,337
$
(8,710)
$
(26,435)
$
(26,435)
$
Net income (loss)
(23,331)
$
(15,158)
$
(15,631)
$
(2,617)
$
(56,738)
$
(53,765)
$
(79,619)
$
DD&A
43,462
48,000
36,668
48,154
176,285
177,446
182,081
Tax expense
(178)
(17,789)
(13,995)
(24,525)
(56,486)
(55,154)
(15,567)
Loan Cost & Discount Amort.
1,147
1,147
1,147
1,147
4,590
4,590
-
Interest expense
12,100
12,100
12,100
12,100
48,400
48,400
46,709
Restructuring cost
-
1,500
-
-
1,500
-
-
EBITDA
33,201
$
29,800
$
20,289
$
34,260
$
117,551
$
121,517
$
133,605
$
Emerge from Chapter 11 at the end of October 2015.
First quarter production set to actual.
Strip pricing as of April 10, 2015; exchange rate updated to 1.47
USD to GBP. Professional fees updated based on later
emergence date and recent monthly fees. Assumes that the
current EEUK loan is refinanced at an 11% interest and is amortized at 10%.
Certain cost reductions associated with OPEX and SG&A are
implemented throughout 2015. Net Income and EBITDA do not
factor in the non-cash allocation of G&A from the US to the UK.
Covenant EBITDA would be adjusted downward by approximately $10mm in
2015 due to allocation of US G&A. |
 Privileged & Confidential
Prepared at the Request of
Counsel
Subject to FRE 408
3
Confidential: Subject to NDA
UPDATED
FORECAST
-
U.S.
CASH
FLOWS
U.S. CASH FLOWS
Note 1:
US Cash Flow
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
FY 2015
Net Revenue
1,001
$
1,880
$
591
$
-
$
3,472
$
Operating Expense
802
502
104
-
1,408
Net Operating Cash Flow
199
$
1,378
$
487
$
-
$
2,064
$
General & Administrative
3,704
3,324
3,134
1,045
11,207
EBITDA
(3,505)
$
(1,946)
$
(2,647)
$
(1,045)
$
(9,143)
$
Professional Fees
8,258
$
8,601
$
9,373
$
14,680
$
40,912
$
Other Restructuring Costs
-
500
-
2,000
2,500
Capex
1,941
2,616
27
-
4,584
Proceeds from Asset Sale
-
-
[
] -
[
] Working Capital / Other
(796)
-
-
-
(796)
Total US Cash Flow
(14,500)
$
(13,663)
$
(12,047)
$
(17,725)
$
(57,935)
$
Ending US Cash
17,000
$
3,337
$
(8,710)
$
(26,435)
$
(26,435)
$
Net income (loss)
(12,785)
$
(11,416)
$
(13,480)
$
(17,725)
$
(55,405)
$
DD&A
514
970
297
-
1,781
Tax expense
507
(601)
1,164
-
1,069
Loan Cost & Discount Amort.
-
-
-
-
-
Interest expense
-
-
-
-
-
Restructuring cost
8,258
9,101
9,373
16,680
43,412
EBITDA
(3,505)
$
(1,946)
$
(2,647)
$
(1,045)
$
(9,143)
$
Net Income and EBITDA do not factor in the non-cash allocation
of G&A from the US to the UK. |
 U.K.
3P STRIP CASE INTERNAL UNAUDITED RESERVE REPORT METRICS
4
Confidential: Subject to NDA
NET MMBOE
Note 1: Reserve report as disclosed in the 8-k dated February 27,
2015. 0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Alba 1P
Alba 2P
Alba 3P
Bacchus 1P
Bacchus 2P
Bacchus 3P
Rochelle 1P
Rochelle 2P
Rochelle 3P
Other 1P
Other 2P
Other 3P
Privileged & Confidential
Prepared at the Request of
Counsel
Subject to FRE 408 |
 U.K.
3P STRIP CASE INTERNAL UNAUDITED RESERVE REPORT METRICS
5
Confidential: Subject to NDA
CAPEX
OPEX
Note 1: Reserve report as disclosed in the 8-k dated February 27,
2015. Note 2: Reserve report OPEX and CAPEX do not include any
allocations of SG&A. In 2014, SG&A allocated to UK OPEX and UK CAPEX were $4 million and $6 million, respectively. In 2014,
SG&A allocated to US OPEX and US CAPEX were $3 million and
$5 million, respectively. Note 3: Post production CAPEX is
associated with plugging and abandonment liabilities which, as in the case of Alba, requires financial security be posted in the form of a Letter of Credit.
Note 4: From the beginning to the end of Q1-2015 the UK cash
balance has remained flat. $0
$20
$40
$60
$80
Alba
Bacchus
Rochelle
Other
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
Alba
Bacchus
Rochelle
Other
Privileged & Confidential
Prepared at the Request of
Counsel
Subject to FRE 408 |