Provision for credit losses (CLPs):
-At the Q4 2025 results, James von Moltke reiterated that wider asset quality remains
resilient and the bank continues to expect CLPs to trend towards a lower expected
average run rate of around 30bps for FY 2028
-An expected CLP improvement in FY 2026 was also envisaged by Christian Sewing at
the Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference, although he stated that the
conflict in the Middle East added volatility and uncertainty
-As stated in the 2025 Annual Report, although Deutsche Bank has limited direct
exposures to the Middle East, broader geopolitical destabilization could negatively
impact the bank’s clients and have an adverse effect on Deutsche Bank’s financial
results, including increases in allowance for credit losses
Costs:
-At the Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference, Christian Sewing stated that
he is very happy with the cost discipline of the company shown in the first two
months of the year
-At the Q4 2025 results, James von Moltke stated that he expects noninterest
expenses for FY 2026 to increase slightly YoY to slightly above € 21bn, which
includes around € 900m of incremental investments in FY 2026 to unlock growth and
efficiencies as early as this year; in the 2025 Annual Report, Deutsche Bank states that
it expects the cost/income ratio to remain <65% for FY 2026
-The 2025 Annual Report also provides guidance on divisional noninterest expenses
for FY 2026:
-Private Bank noninterest expenses are expected to be slightly higher YoY,
driven by investments into business growth as well as transformation initiatives
and efficiency programs
-Asset Management noninterest expenses are expected to be essentially flat
YoY
-Corporate Bank noninterest expenses are expected to be slightly higher YoY,
driven by investments in growth initiatives
-Investment Bank noninterest expenses are expected to be slightly higher YoY
with strategic growth initiatives, technology investments and expected
increased litigation expenses expected to be partially offset by lower bank levy
charges and more broad-based cost efficiencies
Profitability:
-At the Q4 2025 results, James von Moltke stated that, in line with guidance provided
at its Investor Deep Dive 2025, Deutsche Bank plans to show improvements in
operating performance every year; this was reiterated by Christian Sewing at the
Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference
-Corporate & Other is expected to generate a pre-tax loss of approximately € 200m per
quarter in FY 2026 driven by shareholder expenses, certain funding and liquidity
impacts, the reversal of noncontrolling interests reported in the business segments,
primarily from DWS, as well as valuation and timing differences