.3
Financial Forecast – Additional Detail
Financial Forecast
| ($ in millions) | 4Q24E | 2025P | 2026P | 2027P | 2028P | 2029P | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue |
$ | 32.8 | $ | 147.9 | $ | 189.6 | $ | 236.1 | $ | 278.6 | $ | 312.1 | ||||||||||||
| Adj. EBITDA |
(20.6 | ) | (51.8 | ) | (22.5 | ) | 0.0 | 20.2 | 37.1 | |||||||||||||||
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow |
(13.7 | ) | (27.1 | ) | (8.5 | ) | 6.5 | 17.3 | 32.2 | |||||||||||||||
| Selected Forecast Assumptions & Drivers: |
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| Gross Margin |
30 | % | 41 | % | 46 | % | 51 | % | 54 | % | 55 | % | ||||||||||||
| S&M Expense % of Revenue |
58 | % | 48 | % | 39 | % | 35 | % | 33 | % | 31 | % | ||||||||||||
| R&D Expense % of Revenue |
12 | % | 11 | % | 9 | % | 7 | % | 6 | % | 6 | % | ||||||||||||
| G&A Expense % of Revenue |
24 | % | 17 | % | 11 | % | 9 | % | 7 | % | 7 | % | ||||||||||||
Commentary:
| • | Year-over-year revenue growth is driven by significant growth in sales rep productivity and resulting AviClear capital and consumable sales |
| • | Gross profit margin expansion driven by improved economies of scale |
| • | Operating margin expansion driven by increased revenue growth, cost savings related to being a private company, and absorption of fixed operating expenses |
| • | S&M reduction (as a percentage of sales) driven by productivity growth |
| • | Year-over-year changes in net working capital, due to the sale of the Company’s large existing inventory base, is responsible for the substantial majority of the difference between Adjusted EBITDA and Unlevered Free Cash Flow through 2027 |
Note: The projections herein are based on current management estimates and are subject to risks and uncertainties
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13-Week Forecast
| Week 1 Feb-25 2/28/25 |
Filing Week 2 Mar-25 3/7/25 |
Week 3 Mar-25 3/14/25 |
Week 4 Mar-25 3/21/25 |
Week 5 Mar-25 3/28/25 |
Week 6 Apr-25 4/4/25 |
Week 7 Apr-25 4/11/25 |
Week 8 Apr-25 4/18/25 |
Week 9 Apr-25 4/25/25 |
Emerge Week 10 May-25 5/2/25 |
Week 11 May-25 5/9/25 |
Week 12 May-25 5/16/25 |
Week 13 May-25 5/23/25 |
13 Week Total |
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| Collections |
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| Collections |
$ | 1,296 | $ | 1,276 | $ | 1,347 | $ | 1,923 | $ | 2,400 | $ | 2,024 | $ | 1,853 | $ | 1,789 | $ | 1,697 | $ | 1,517 | $ | 1,362 | $ | 1,273 | $ | 1,193 | $ | 20,951 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cash Outflows |
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| Operating Disbursements: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Payroll & Benefits |
$ | (1,655 | ) | $ | (80 | ) | $ | (129 | ) | $ | (2,554 | ) | $ | (155 | ) | $ | (1,500 | ) | $ | (129 | ) | $ | (1,900 | ) | $ | (1,369 | ) | $ | — | $ | (1,500 | ) | $ | (129 | ) | $ | (2,096 | ) | $ | (13,198 | ) | |||||||||||||||
| Facilities & Insurance |
(2,283 | ) | (6 | ) | (69 | ) | — | (7 | ) | (387 | ) | (28 | ) | (69 | ) | — | (502 | ) | (25 | ) | (776 | ) | — | (4,154 | ) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| All Other Payables |
(3,605 | ) | (1,922 | ) | (2,200 | ) | (2,156 | ) | (1,892 | ) | (2,808 | ) | (1,284 | ) | (1,674 | ) | (1,667 | ) | (1,985 | ) | (1,673 | ) | (1,624 | ) | (1,686 | ) | (26,177 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Total |
$ | (7,543 | ) | $ | (2,008 | ) | $ | (2,399 | ) | $ | (4,710 | ) | $ | (2,054 | ) | $ | (4,695 | ) | $ | (1,442 | ) | $ | (3,644 | ) | $ | (3,036 | ) | $ | (2,487 | ) | $ | (3,198 | ) | $ | (2,530 | ) | $ | (3,783 | ) | $ | (43,528 | ) | ||||||||||||||
| Net Operating Cash Flow |
$ | (6,248 | ) | $ | (732 | ) | $ | (1,052 | ) | $ | (2,787 | ) | $ | 346 | $ | (2,671 | ) | $ | 412 | $ | (1,855 | ) | $ | (1,338 | ) | $ | (970 | ) | $ | (1,836 | ) | $ | (1,257 | ) | $ | (2,590 | ) | $ | (22,577 | ) | ||||||||||||||||
| Debt-Service: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DIP Interest |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | (473 | ) | — | — | — | (473 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Total |
$ | — | $ | — | $ | — | $ | — | $ | — | $ | — | $ | — | $ | — | $ | — | $ | (473 | ) | $ | — | $ | — | $ | — | $ | (473 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Non-Operating Disbursements: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Professional Fees |
$ | (875 | ) | $ | (3,231 | ) | $ | (547 | ) | $ | (522 | ) | $ | (572 | ) | $ | (372 | ) | $ | (1,172 | ) | $ | (722 | ) | $ | (1,247 | ) | $ | (5,972 | ) | $ | — | $ | — | $ | — | $ | (15,232 | ) | |||||||||||||||||
| Utility Deposits |
— | (39 | ) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 39 | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Total |
$ | (875 | ) | $ | (3,270 | ) | $ | (547 | ) | $ | (522 | ) | $ | (572 | ) | $ | (372 | ) | $ | (1,172 | ) | $ | (722 | ) | $ | (1,247 | ) | $ | (5,972 | ) | $ | — | $ | 39 | $ | — | $ | (15,232 | ) | |||||||||||||||||
| Net Cash Flow |
$ | (7,123 | ) | $ | (4,002 | ) | $ | (1,599 | ) | $ | (3,309 | ) | $ | (226 | ) | $ | (3,042 | ) | $ | (760 | ) | $ | (2,577 | ) | $ | (2,585 | ) | $ | (7,415 | ) | $ | (1,836 | ) | $ | (1,218 | ) | $ | (2,590 | ) | $ | (38,282 | ) | ||||||||||||||
| Beginning Domestic Book Cash |
$ | 16,233 | $ | 9,110 | $ | 20,108 | $ | 18,509 | $ | 15,200 | $ | 24.974 | $ | 21,931 | $ | 21,171 | $ | 18,594 | $ | 16,009 | $ | 48,594 | $ | 46,758 | $ | 45,541 | $ | 16,233 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (+/-) Net Cash Flow |
(7,123 | ) | (4,002 | ) | (1,599 | ) | (3,309 | ) | (226 | ) | (3,042 | ) | (760 | ) | (2,577 | ) | (2,585 | ) | (7,415 | ) | (1,836 | ) | (1,218 | ) | (2,590 | ) | (38,282 | ) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (+) DIP / Exit Financing / ERO |
— | 15,000 | — | — | 10,000 | — | — | — | — | 40,000 | — | — | — | 65,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ending Domestic Book Cash |
$ | 9,110 | $ | 20,108 | $ | 18,509 | $ | 15,200 | $ | 24,974 | $ | 21,931 | $ | 21,171 | $ | 18,594 | $ | 16,009 | $ | 48,594 | $ | 46,758 | $ | 45,541 | $ | 42,951 | $ | 42,951 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Note: Forecast does not account for cash balances at foreign subsidiaries or cash generated by foreign subsidiaries
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