Please wait
December
4, 2006
ICOS
Corporation
22021
20th
Avenue
Southeast
Bothell,
WA 98021
Attn:
Board
of
Directors
Paul
N.
Clark
James
L.
Ferguson
Robert
J.
Herbold
Jack
W.
Schuler
Vaughn
D.
Bryson
Gary
L.
Wilcox
Teresa
Beck
Robert
W.
Pangia
David
V.
Milligan
Dear
Gentlemen:
HealthCor
Management, L.P. (“HealthCor”) is the investment advisor to certain private
investment funds that currently own 3,400,000 shares of ICOS Corporation (“ICOS”
or the “Company”). This represents more than 5% of all ICOS common shares
outstanding.1
On
November 2, 2006 and November 13, 2006, HealthCor stated in letters delivered
to
ICOS our intention to vote against the proposed acquisition of ICOS by Eli
Lilly
& Company (“Eli Lilly”) at the upcoming shareholder meeting that was
initially announced in the Company’s November 1, 2006 Preliminary Proxy
Statement.2
As we
have explained in the HealthCor Letters, the reason we will take this action
is
that we believe that ICOS’ actual value is well in excess of $40 per share. We
are also seriously considering exercising our Dissenters’ Rights pursuant to the
Washington Business Corporation Act.
1
Based
upon 65,637,939 shares of the Company’s common shares outstanding as October 30,
2006 as reported in the Company’s Schedule 14A Definitive Proxy Statement filed
with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 14, 2006 (the “Proxy
Statement”).
2
A copy
of our November 2, 2006 letter to ICOS was attached as Exhibit 1 to our
Form 13D
filed with Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on November 2, 2006 (the
“November 2nd
Letter”)
and a copy of our November 13, 2006 letter to ICOS was attached as Exhibit
1 to
our Form 13D/A filed with SEC on November 13, 2006 (the “November 13th
Letter;”
together with the November 2nd
Letter,
the “HealthCor Letters”).
We
have
reviewed the ICOS shareholder presentation material designed to provide a
rationale for the valuation being offered to ICOS shareholders in the
acquisition as currently proposed by Eli Lilly (the “ICOS Defense”)3 .
We
believe the ICOS Defense is incomplete and misleading and should not to be
relied upon. We remain firm in our belief that the value of ICOS is well in
excess of the current offer by Eli Lilly.
The
ICOS
Defense has not addressed many of the serious issues raised in our analysis
and
objections set forth in the HealthCor Letters. According to the Additional
Soliciting Material, ICOS’ management has decided to meet with certain
shareholders to discuss the ICOS Defense. In addition to ignoring our attempts
to have an open dialogue, ICOS’ management is failing to address the major
issues we have raised in the HealthCor Letters and is now selectively excluding
us from meetings available to other certain shareholders. Specifically:
| 1) |
The
ICOS Defense does not address why the acquisition was announced two
days
before Lilly ICOS LLC reported a material financial upside surprise.
The
better than expected results AFTER the acquisition announcement constitute
a material intervening event. Had the positive financial results
been
adequately disseminated in the market, ICOS’ share price would have risen
and much of the premium being offered by Eli Lilly would have been
eliminated;
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| 2) |
The
ICOS Defense does not address why ICOS does not make use of industry
accepted valuation metrics such as transaction value as a multiple
of
revenues. We have used these metrics and applied precedent transaction
terms to generate fair value that is significantly above $40 per
share;
and
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| 3) |
The
ICOS Defense does not address the highly inappropriate “Amended and
Restated Change in Control Severance Agreement” and the “ICOS Corporation
Retention, Sale and Special Recognition and Bonus Plan” enacted the day
before the acquisition was announced. This indefensible ADDITIONAL
COMPENSATION for management is contingent upon completion of the
transaction. In light of recent actions, we cannot help but question
the
motivation of management. We do not believe ICOS’ management is seeking to
maximize shareholder value but is instead focusing on their self
interest.
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In
the
“Fairness Opinion” rendered in the Proxy Statement, Merrill Lynch, Pierce,
Fenner & Smith (“Merrill”) relied extensively on one year forward P/E ratios
relative to the biotechnology benchmarks, technical analysis, DCF analysis,
historical premiums in comparable transactions, and Wall Street analyst price
targets. In the ICOS Defense, ICOS’ management is now depending solely on an
arbitrary yet undisclosed DCF analysis while backing away from the other
valuation metrics used in the “Fairness Opinion” and touted by ICOS’ management
as justification for the current offer by Eli Lilly. As a result of its failure
to continue to address these other valuation metrics set forth in the “Fairness
Opinion”, WE BELIEVE THE ICOS DEFENSE ACTUALLY SUPPORTS THE HEALTHCOR POSITION
THAT THE VALUE OF ICOS IS WELL IN EXCESS OF THE CURRENT OFFER FROM ELI
LILLY.
3
Schedule
14A Additional Proxy Soliciting Materials filed with the SEC on November 30,
2006 (the “Additional Soliciting Material”).
The
ICOS
Defense shows a chart of the last five months of ICOS’ share price performance
from the “Date of Lilly’s First Offer” on May 23, 2006. Somehow ICOS management
wants us to believe that this date is relevant in the determination of the
value
of ICOS. In fact, according to the Company’s Proxy Statement, the date of Eli
Lilly’s first indication of interest in acquiring ICOS was June 2005. ICOS
management retained legal counsel on August 2, 2005 for purposes of a potential
transaction with Eli Lilly and on August 10, 2005, ICOS received an initial
valuation from Eli Lilly in the range of $28-$30 per share. According to the
information contained in the Proxy Statement, the representation in the ICOS
Defense that May 23, 2006 was the “Date of Lilly’s First Offer”4
appears
to be intentionally misleading as the ICOS Defense omits any mention of events
prior to May 2006 thereby implying the negotiation process only began in May
2006 rather than almost one year earlier.
May
23,
2006 is close to the low of the year for the share price. This appears to yet
another attempt by ICOS’ management to manipulate historical dates to support
the low valuation being offered to ICOS by Eli Lilly; much like Merrill did
when
it conveniently selected October 3, 2006 (two weeks prior to the announcement
of
the transaction with Eli Lilly) as the reference point upon which to try to
convince ICOS shareholders that Eli Lilly was offering a 26% premium when in
reality the premium was a paltry 18% (as now acknowledged by ICOS’ management in
the ICOS Defense). We do not believe May 23, 2006 is a relevant reference point,
unless management is also willing to look at comparable transactions and the
comparable transaction premiums calculated from the target company’s’ five month
share price low.
The
ICOS
Defense uses the date prior to the announcement of the transaction as the date
upon which to calculate the premium that Eli Lilly is offering to ICOS
shareholders. We applaud ICOS’ management for agreeing with our analysis that
the correct date for determination of a transaction premium is the day before
the announcement of the merger rather than two weeks prior to the announcement
of the merger, as had been the argument by ICOS’ management initially. However,
again we come to the same conclusion: the transaction offers a meager 18%
premium for shareholders compared to the 40%-45% average premium in precedent
transactions. The precedent transactions used in our analysis are the same
transactions used by Merrill in the “Fairness Opinion”. ICOS’ management is
agreeing in the ICOS Defense that the transaction represents an 18% premium
for
shareholders. Accordingly, the ICOS Defense using comparable transaction
premiums is SUPPORTIVE OF THE HEALTHCOR POSITION.
The
ICOS
Defense looks at the target prices of certain Wall Street analysts. ICOS’
management would have its shareholders believe that the “$32 per share bid,
grown at 20% p.a., implies a 12-month target price of $38.50 - at the high
end
of all analysts’ price targets.” We are unsure what ICOS’ management is
attempting to argue with this analysis. Our conclusion from this argument is
that ICOS’ management would like its shareholders to believe there is 20% upside
from the $32 currently proposed transaction price if ICOS were to remain a
public company. We remind ICOS’ management that there is customarily a premium
paid to the acquired entity ABOVE fair value. No matter how you look at this
data provided by the Company, the ICOS Defense is SUPPORTIVE OF THE HEALTHCOR
POSITION.
The
ICOS
Defense also looks at forward P/E multiples. Initially, in our November
2nd
Letter,
we took issue with the fact the “Fairness Opinion” only looked at one-year
forward P/E multiples. We argued that this approach was short-sighted and
inappropriate to determine the value of ICOS. ICOS is just starting to turn
profitable and the use of a P/E based valuation underestimated the value of
the
Company’s share price. Apparently, ICOS’ management agrees with our position
since the ICOS Defense now refers to 2008 P/E ratios. However, their analysis
is
a distortion. For reasons unknown, the P/E analysis in the ICOS Defense has
divided the comparable universe into two groups. For additional reasons unknown,
it excludes certain high multiple stocks and it fully taxes the EPS of ICOS,
even though ICOS has Net Operating Losses of $919m. We
have
attempted to verify the dual universe peer group valuations used in the ICOS
Defense and have been unsuccessful. We are perplexed why a presumably
faster growing mid-cap peer universe trades at a lower P/E multiple than the
large-cap peer universe. We are unable to verify your numbers and
therefore your conclusions due to the numerous adjustments you have made.
We cannot help but conclude the adjustments have been made so that the value
being offered ICOS shareholders appears reasonable while we have shown that
the
premium is unacceptably low. However,
even with the “analytical spin” being used in the ICOS Defense, the resulting
P/E multiple is essentially equal to the mean and median 2008 P/E multiple
for
the comparable GROUP.
ICOS’
management appears to be arguing this is where ICOS should be valued as a
public, stand alone company. Any acquisition should add a premium to the
publicly traded value of the Company. ICOS’ management should compare forward
P/E multiples of comparable TRANSACTIONS
to the
currently proposed Eli Lilly ICOS transaction. Again, ICOS’ management is
attempting to compare public company valuations to change in control
transactions. We believe this is an improper comparable analysis and is another
attempt by ICOS’ management to distort the facts. Again, the fact that the ICOS
Defense is using a forward P/E analysis is SUPPORTIVE OF THE HEATHCOR
POSITION.
The
ICOS
Defense makes use of a DCF analysis yet the details of the DCF analysis are
not
disclosed. Remedial financial analysis principles state that while a DCF
analysis is an important tool it is also fraught with problems. Perhaps the
most
glaring error of the DCF analysis discussed in the ICOS Defense is the 15%
discount rate applied to the future financial results. A discount rate is a
combination of the risk free interest rate along with a risk premium that takes
into consideration industry and company specific risks of ICOS. We believe
that
the discount rate used in the ICOS Defense is inappropriate and overly penalizes
the valuation of ICOS shares for the following reasons:
4
[See
ICOS Defense pages 7 and 9; page number references for the ICOS Defense
correspond to page numbers appearing on the lower right hand corner of each
page
of the ICOS Defense as it appears in the Additional Soliciting Material.
The
Additional Soliciting Material may be found on the SEC EDGAR database at:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874294/000119312506244654/ddefa14a.htm.]
| · |
A
15% discount rate might be appropriate for a biotech company that
is
conducting late stage clinical trials and faces uncertainty of clinical
trial results and regulatory action: ICOS’ Cialis has demonstrated
efficacy and safety in clinical trials as well as in the commercial
market
and is already approved in the United States and
overseas;
|
| · |
A
15% discount rate might be appropriate for a company with unknown
commercial launch prospects: ICOS’ Cialis has had a very successful launch
and is taking share from the market leader (Viagra). Cialis is a
billion
dollar product. As a clinically proven and commercially profitable
product, Cialis should not be discounted at a rate that is used for
companies with higher variability in sales, margins, earnings and
developmental pipelines. Also, ICOS’ Cialis is adding additional
indications that will boost the already fast growing
revenues;
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| · |
A
15% discount rate might be appropriate for a company with a lead
product
facing patent expiry: ICOS’ Cialis maintains more than 10 years of patent
exclusivity; and
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| · |
A
15% discount rate might be appropriate for a company that has operating
losses and financial instability. ICOS’ Cialis is expected to report
approximately $1 billion in revenues in 2007 and ICOS is now swinging
from
operating losses to significant operating profitability. This financial
stability and future profitability is confirmed by the third quarter
2006
results.
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We
believe that the evidence is clear. Using the data supplied by Merrill, ICOS
and
information publicly available, we have shown through objective analysis that
ICOS is worth significantly more than the currently proposed Eli Lilly bid
of
$32 per share. ICOS’
management incentives are not aligned with shareholders and in fact they have
a
meaningful financial incentive to close a transaction unfavorable to
shareholders.
Merrill,
the financial advisor to ICOS, is retained with a FIXED advisory fee of $10
million paid upon closing in contrast to a “percentage of the transaction value”
fee which is customary in comparable transactions. We do not believe Merrill
is
incentivized to maximize the value of the transaction. Instead, we believe
that
Merrill is incentivized to close the transaction at any price rather than to
maximize shareholder value.
We
have
attempted repeatedly to have open and productive dialogue with ICOS’ management
and have consistently been rebuffed. Yet, ICOS’ management has decided to have
meeting with other select shareholders to discuss the ICOS Defense.
The
proposed purchase of ICOS is not an arm’s length transaction. The acquisition
did not occur in a market-based, competitive bid process. The “Fairness Opinion”
should not be relied upon. The ICOS Defense is incomplete and inadequate in
that
it fails to address the major issues. We believe ICOS’ management and its
financial advisor are both incentivized to act in a manner that is not
consistent with maximizing shareholder value. Their actions to date confirm
our
belief.
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Sincerely, |
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HealthCor Management, L.P. |
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Joseph P. Healey |
Arthur B. Cohen |
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Portfolio Manager |
Portfolio Manager |
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