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ICOS
Corporation Analysis
Materials
Prepared For ISS
November 28, 2006
This
analysis is
being provided at the unsolicited request of Institutional Shareholder Services
for
additional
information regarding HealthCor's previously
announced intention to vote
against
the proposed
acquisition of ICOS Corporation by Eli Lilly. In agreeing to meet with
ISS,
HealthCor
is not
engaging in a proxy solicitation within the meaning of
Rule
14a-1(l) under
the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
1
Table
of
Contents
Executive
Summary
ICOS
Corporation
Erectile
Dysfunction
Market
Valuation
Considerations
Dissenters’
Rights
Broker
Models
HealthCor
13D
Filings
2
Executive
Summary
As
filed with the
SEC, HealthCor Management owns over 3.3MM shares of ICOS
(>5%) and we
intend to vote against the proposed acquisition of ICOS by Eli Lilly
We
believe that the
earnings power of the Lilly ICOS JV is greater than the public
markets had
discounted on October 16, 2006
Included
in
ICOS Proxy statement – ICOS acknowledges that its internal
expectation for
EPS in 2007 exceeds the consensus Wall Street estimates by at
least 22%
This
transaction was announced three days before LLY-ICOS earnings which were
significantly above expectations
Furthermore
–
we
believe that other compelling evidence is the material earnings
accretion
being forecast for the shareholders of Eli Lilly by Wall Street analysts
(see
Appendix, Nov. 2 13D letter, exhibit B for detail)
Finally
–
we
are
very troubled by the “Amended and Restated Change in Control and
Severance
Agreement” - which effectively provides greater financial gains for
senior
management as a result of the anticipated sale of the Company
3
Executive
Summary
ICOS
Share
Price
4
Table
of
Contents
Executive
Summary
ICOS
Corporation
Erectile
Dysfunction
Market
Valuation
Considerations
Dissenters’
Rights
Broker
Models
HealthCor
13D
Filings
5
ICOS
Overview
ICOS
Corporation is
a biotechnology
company whose primary asset is its
50% of the joint
venture profits from
Lilly ICOS
Lilly
ICOS markets
and sells the
erectile dysfunction drug Cialis
Total
Cialis sales
were $746.6M in
2005 and are forecast by Wall Street
analysts to grow by
27% to
approximately $950M in 2006
Cialis’
gross
margins are
approximately 92%
ICOS
does have other
research
programs which have provided a
negative drain on earnings –
nonetheless the company is now
profitable
6
Lilly
ICOS Net Income
Forecasts
2006
2007
2008
UBS
292.9
400.9
522.2
Growth
36.9%
30.2%
Morgan
Stanley
293.8
318.2
428.6
Growth
8.3%
34.7%
Cowen
274.4
376.5
489.2
Growth
37.2%
29.9%
Mean
287.0
365.2
480.0
Growth
27.2%
31.4%
50%
Share to ICOS
143.5
182.6
240.0
Shares
Outstanding
65.5
65.5
65.5
EPS
Contribution from JV
2.19
2.79
3.66
Growth
27.2%
31.4%
Lilly
offer Price
32.0
32.0
32.0
Offer
Price / JV
EPS
14.6x
11.5x
8.7x
ICOS
3Q
2006 Results
7
ICOS
Q3 EPS of .15
were much higher
than consensus EPS
of .07 due to
leverage at
the JV
level
Sep
Sep
3Q06
3Q06
Difference
E
A
CIALIS
Lilly
ICOS
(US)
95.3
94.9
(0.4)
Lilly
ICOS (Rest of North
America)
17.9
20.2
2.3
Lilly
ICOS (North
America)
114.2
115.2
1.0
Lilly
ICOS
(Europe)
72.9
75.4
2.6
Lilly
ICOS (North America
& Europe)
187.7
190.6
2.9
Lilly
Territories
(ROW)
52.7
55.0
2.3
TOTAL
CIALIS
SALES
240.5
245.6
5.2
Collaboration
Revenues
17.1
16.4
(0.7)
Licenses
of
technology
-
Contract
manufacturing
4.2
4.3
0.0
Co-promotion
services
0.7
-
(0.7)
TOTAL
REVENUES
21.5
20.6
(0.8)
FC
SALES
(10/24/06)
21.0
(0.3)
R&D
25.9
25.3
(0.6)
Sales
and
Marketing
13.8
13.2
(0.6)
General
and
Administrative
8.4
8.1
(0.3)
Total
- S&M /
G&A
21.1
21.3
0.2
Cost
of
manufacturing
3.1
4.6
1.6
Stock
compensation
expense
7.3
(7.3)
TOTAL
OPERATING
EXPENSES
49.7
51.3
1.5
OPERATING
INCOME/(LOSS)
(28.3)
(30.6)
(2.4)
Equity
in Profits/(Losses) of
Affiliates
34.7
40.0
5.2
Gain
on sale of partnership
interests
-
Interest
expense
(1.5)
(1.7)
(0.2)
Interest
and other
income
2.2
2.3
0.1
TOTAL
INTEREST & OTHER
INCOME
0.1
0.6
0.5
INCOME/(LOSS)
BEFORE INCOME
TAXES
6.6
9.9
3.4
Income
Taxes
Provision/(Gain)
0.5
0.2
(0.2)
Tax
Rate
5.0%
2.2%
NET
INCOME/(LOSS)
6.3
9.7
3.4
FD
Shares
Out
65.1
65.2
Stock
Option Expense (Tax
Adjusted)
7.5
(7.5)
Diluted
EPS
0.17
0.15
(0.02)
Diluted
EPS (with stock
options expense)
0.05
0.15
0.10
FC
EPS
(10/24/06)
0.07
0.08
Cialis
Additional Clinical Trial Programs
Hypertension
–
Positive Phase II data released on Q3 2006 earnings call – Market is
in
excess of $15B according to ICOS
Benign
Prostatic
Hyperplasia – Phase IIb program initiated in Q3 2006 – GSK’s
Avodart is
expected to generate ~ $300M in revenue in 2006
Pulmonary
Arterial
Hypertension – patient enrollment progressing on schedule –
Revatio (Viagra)
already approved - $250M+ opportunity
400
patient phase
III study
Once
a day treatment
for ED – expects to file an expanded indication – regulatory
filings
occurred in the US and Canada in mid-2006
8
ICOS
Shareholders – As Reported by Bloomberg
9
ICOS
Shareholders - According to Proxy - As of October 30
10
Excessive
ICOS Executive Compensation from Transaction
11
Table
of
Contents
Executive
Summary
ICOS
Corporation
Erectile
Dysfunction
Market
Valuation
Considerations
Dissenters’
Rights
Broker
Models
HealthCor
13D
Filings
12
Erectile
Dysfunction Market Overview
In
November of 2003,
FDA approved LLY-ICOS’ PDE-5 inhibitor Cialis for
erectile dysfunction
Since
then
prescriptions have steadily grown and the drug continues to take
market
share from Viagra
Cialis
is
differentiated from its competing PDE-5 inhibitors, Viagra and
Levitra, by
its extended 36-hour duration of action and lack of food effects
Both
are mentioned
in its label
Viagra,
the current
market leader, recorded over $1.6BN in revenue in
2005
13
Erectile
Dysfunction Prescriptions Continue to Grow AND Cialis
continues to Gain
market share
14
Erectile
Dysfunction Prescriptions Continue to Grow AND Cialis
continues to Gain
market share
Source:
IMS
15
Table
of
Contents
Executive
Summary
ICOS
Corporation
Erectile
Dysfunction
Market
Valuation
Considerations
Dissenters’
Rights
Broker
Models
HealthCor
13D
Filings
16
Large
Cap
Biotech Trading Comps
17
Biotech
Comps - Source -
Factset
11/21/06
2006E
EV
/
EV
/
2006
2007
2008
Company
Ticker
Price
Mkt
Cap
EV
LTM
Sales
EBITDA
LTM
Sales
2006
EBITDA
CY
06
EPS
CY
07
EPS
CY
08
EPS
PE
PE
PE
GENENTECH
INC
DNA
80.36
$
84,699.5
89,030.2
6,972.1
3,327.6
12.8x
26.8x
2.16
2.66
3.28
37.2x
30.2x
24.5x
AMGEN
INC
AMGN
72.98
$
85,132.5
88,357.5
13,704.0
6,170.5
6.4x
14.3x
3.93
4.41
4.99
18.6x
16.5x
14.6x
CELGENE
CORP
CELG
56.07
$
20,882.8
19,288.9
773.3
223.8
24.9x
86.2x
0.53
1.07
1.62
105.8x
52.4x
34.6x
GENZYME
CORP
GENZ
66.05
$
17,361.6
17,229.9
3,045.3
808.0
5.7x
21.3x
2.74
3.14
3.64
24.1x
21.0x
18.1x
BIOGEN
IDEC INC
BIIB
51.00
$
17,193.5
16,577.5
2,607.6
1,339.4
6.4x
12.4x
2.22
2.54
2.89
23.0x
20.1x
17.6x
SEPRACOR
INC
SEPR
55.28
$
6,056.1
6,393.6
1,150.5
169.4
5.6x
37.7x
1.31
2.18
3.10
42.2x
25.4x
17.8x
GILEAD
SCIENCES INC
GILD
67.51
$
31,042.9
29,549.1
2,736.2
1,584.7
10.8x
18.6x
2.38
2.55
2.90
28.4x
26.5x
23.3x
MEDIMMUNE
INC
MEDI
33.11
$
7,920.1
8,362.2
1,240.1
125.7
6.7x
66.5x
0.19
0.85
1.22
174.3x
39.0x
27.1x
MILLENNIUM
PHARMACEUTICALS
MLNM
11.26
$
3,558.5
3,098.9
383.1
80.0
8.1x
38.7x
0.11
0.13
0.24
102.4x
86.6x
46.9x
OSI
PHARMACEUTICALS INC
OSIP
37.74
$
2,161.1
2,225.5
366.1
(3.7)
6.1x
-596.6x
(0.51)
0.32
1.04
-74.0x
117.9x
36.3x
IMCLONE
SYSTEMS INC
IMCL
31.66
$
2,681.8
2,280.6
644.7
309.1
3.5x
7.4x
2.94
1.48
1.43
10.8x
21.4x
22.1x
Mean
8.8x
-24.2x
44.8x
41.5x
25.7x
Median
6.4x
21.3x
28.4x
26.5x
23.3x
Max
24.9x
86.2x
174.3x
117.9x
46.9x
Min
3.5x
-596.6x
-74.0x
16.5x
14.6x
ICOS
CORP
ICOS
32.46
$
2,127.7
2,299.5
76.7
NA
30.0x
NA
0.29
0.65
1.25
111.9x
49.9x
26.0x
Selected
Merger Transaction Analysis
The
premium being
offered to ICOS shareholders is significantly below
that offered in
comparable transactions
Since
the LLY / ICOS
transaction was announced – a number of
acquisitions have been announced all
w / takeover premiums far higher
than that offered to ICOS shareholders
18
Table
of
Contents
Executive
Summary
ICOS
Corporation
Erectile
Dysfunction
Market
Valuation
Consideration
Dissenters’
Rights
Broker
Models
HealthCor
13D
Filings
19
Dissenters’
Rights
20
The
following is a summary of the
process
shareholders
will
need to follow if
they
wish
to
assert its rights under Washington
State’s dissenters’ rights statute:
1.
Notice
of intent to demand
payment
:
Anytime before the special
shareholder meeting on
December
19,
2006, we must deliver a notice
stating we intend to demand payment of
what
we believe to be the fair market
value of our shares if the merger is approved.
2.
Shareholder
vote
:
We must not vote in favor of the
merger in order to assert our
dissenters’
righ
ts.
3.
Notice
from company
:
If the merger is approved at the
special meeting (approval requires
the
affirmative vote of the majority
of the outstanding shares entitled to vote), within 10
days
afterwards, the company must
send dissenters a notice stating wher
e
a payment
demand
must be
submitted.
4.
Payment
demand
:
After receiving the company’s
notice, we must submit a payment
demand
to the
company. The payment demand must be received by the company not
fewer
than 30 nor more than 60 days
after company’s notice
to
us is delivered.
5.
Payment
by company
:
Within 30 days of the later of the
effective date of the merger, or
the
date our payment demand is
received by the company, the company must pay us
what
it estimates the fair value of
the shares to be plus accrued
interest. The
payment
needs
to be accompanied by certain
company financial statements and an explanation of
how
the shares’ fair value was
determined.
6.
Shareholder
dissatisfaction with
payment
:
If we believe the company’s payment
is
inadequate,
within 30 d
ays
of the payment, we must deliver a
notice to the company
setting
forth our estimate of fair
value and demand payment of that estimate less
whatever
has been paid.
7.
Court
action
:
If our demand remains unsettled,
the company must initiate a proceeding
wit
hin
60 days after receipt of our
notice stating the company’s payment was inadequate
by
petitioning the superior court of
the county in which the company’s principal office is
located,
to determine the fair value
of the shares. If the company does not do
so,
it must
pay
each dissenter whose demand is
unsettled the amount demanded. The court shall
have
the power to appoint one or more
appraisers to receive evidence and recommend a
decision
as to fair
value.
8.
Withdrawal
of demand
: Under
the terms of the
mer
ger
agreement, at any point prior to
the
closing of the merger, we may
withdraw our payment demand and instead receive the
merger
consideration to which we
would otherwise be entitled.
Table
of
Contents
Executive
Summary
ICOS
Corporation
Erectile
Dysfunction
Market
Valuation
Consideration
Dissenters’
Rights
Broker
Models
HealthCor
13D
Filings
21
Broker
JV
Model 1 – Cowen
22
Broker
Full P&L Model 1 – Cowen
23
Broker
JV
Model 2 – UBS
24
Broker
Full P&L Model 2 – UBS
25
Broker
JV
Model 3 – Morgan Stanley
26
Broker
Full P&L Model 3 – Morgan Stanley
27
Table
of
Contents
Executive
Summary
ICOS
Corporation
Erectile
Dysfunction
Market
Valuation
Consideration
Dissenters’
Rights
Broker
Models
HealthCor
13D
Filings
28