Political Prediction Markets: A Structural Growth Opportunity February 19, 2026

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Political and macroeconomic contracts are increasingly central to this expansion: ~$7.2B of 2025 volume came from political markets. Non-election political markets generated ~$3.5B in 2025, signaling activity beyond major election cycles. Political and macro contracts hold ~2.5× more open interest than sports contracts on Kalshi. Long-term U.S. market volume is estimated in the hundreds of billions, potentially approaching $1T+ in a mature state. Rapidly Scaling Market at an Inflection Point Prediction markets are emerging as a meaningful new category for outcome-based insight, driven by growing interest in policy decisions and demand for real-time, data-driven forecasting. While major events continue to drive periodic surges, baseline liquidity has strengthened throughout the year — supporting the view that prediction markets are evolving into a durable and expanding financial category. Volume scaling rapidly; open interest accumulating Trading Volume & Open Interest (2024-2025E) $13B Open Interest Trading Volume Source: 365Prediction U.S. Political Prediction Markets Market Report (Feb 2026)

Political Markets Now Drive Sustained Year-Round Liquidity While the 2024 presidential election generated $3.7B+ in volume, the more important signal is the emergence of sustained non-election liquidity. In 2025 alone: Central bank policy contracts exceeded $1.5B in volume. Legislative, fiscal, judicial, and geopolitical contracts traded consistently throughout the year. Leading platforms maintained strong monthly engagement even outside major events. Intercontinental Exchange (“ICE”, NYSE parent) made a multibillion-dollar strategic investment in Polymarket. Prediction probabilities are being distributed via ICE and Dow Jones products. Bloomberg has integrated prediction market data into the Terminal. The CFTC has signaled a constructive regulatory posture toward event contracts and dropped its appeal on election derivatives. Year-Round Demand Beyond Election Cycles Institutional Validation & Regulatory Momentum Together, these developments suggest that political prediction markets are gaining credibility, visibility, and structural support. Sources: ICE press release (2025); Sidley Austin, “U.S. CFTC Signals Imminent Rulemaking on Prediction Markets” (Feb 2026); 365Prediction Market Report (Feb 2026).

From Retail Trading to Institutional Risk Infrastructure: The Structural Shift in Prediction Markets Phase 1: Retail-Driven Adoption (Today) Phase 2: Institutional Integration (Emerging) Speculation around elections and sports ~$44–$63B annualized volume in 2025 High engagement, improving liquidity Early monetization through transaction fees 1 2 Hedging of policy, regulatory, and macro risks Binary event risk exposure not priced in traditional markets Integration into brokerage and risk-management systems Prediction probabilities distributed as financial benchmarks Data and benchmarks become monetizable infrastructure Market Asymmetry Even minimal integration into institutional derivatives workflows would imply a market several multiples larger than today’s ~$50B annual volume. ~$845T Prediction Markets Global Derivatives ~$50B Sources: Bank for International Settlements (global derivatives data); publicly reported platform trading volumes; Bloomberg/WSJ reporting; company disclosures; industry research (2024–2025).

Leveraging FiscalNote’s Core Strengths in an Expanding Category Political prediction markets rely on structured policy intelligence — an area where FiscalNote has built durable, defensible capabilities over more than a decade. Unmatched Depth and Breadth of Policy Expertise Proprietary Data, Intelligence, and Analytics Built-In Audience of Policy Professionals Institutional Trust & Credibility FiscalNote’s policy and regulatory expertise enables clearer market design and more credible resolution of complex political outcomes. In a category where ambiguity can undermine confidence, disciplined definitions and settlement standards become meaningful differentiators. Comprehensive policy intelligence and AI-driven analytics support subscription-based forecasting products and structured policy signals. This positions the company to monetize insight alongside — and not solely through — trading activity. An established ecosystem of policy professionals and advocacy organizations provides a credible foundation for early participation. This enables informed engagement and supports expansion beyond purely retail-driven activity. A reputation built in high-stakes policy environments reinforces governance, transparency, and accountability. Partnerships — including 365Prediction — enable capital-light participation across infrastructure and product development, supporting disciplined expansion into an adjacent, fast-scaling category. Market Design & Resolution Forecasting & Signal Layer Credible Early Adoption Responsible Market Expansion

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