Celsius Holdings: Q3, Q4 and 2027 Puts and Takes

Bottom line

Q3 is a Celsius-brand sidestep, Q4 is a gradual recovery with shipment noise, and 2027 is positioned as the innovation, distribution, and productivity payoff year. Management provided no consolidated quarterly revenue or EBITDA guidance.

Period summary

Period	Management message	Main puts	Main takes	Precision
Q3 2026	Brand Celsius should look “a lot like” Q2, with weekly run rates broadly similar and slight sequential improvement.	Alani momentum; integration savings; improving service and retail execution.	Celsius rationalization, prior-year innovation comparisons, July inventory rebalancing, commodities.	Applies principally to brand Celsius dollars, not consolidated revenue.
Q4 2026	Celsius should improve gradually and exit the year back in growth.	Easier comparisons, cold-space gains, new retailer, Witch’s Brew, possible 2027 innovation load-ins.	Category seasonality, slow SKU roll-off, difficult Alani pipe-fill comparison.	No snapback or numerical growth target; management did not endorse the analyst’s mid-single-digit suggestion.
2027	Return to growth supported by substantial innovation, a stronger portfolio, international expansion, and cost/productivity benefits.	Celsius 16-ounce launch; Alani core-building; Rockstar stabilization; manufacturing and RGM benefits.	Execution-dependent; launch timing unfinished; no quantified revenue, margin, or EPS outlook.	Directional framework, not formal guidance.

Comprehensive puts and takes

Period	Business area	Puts	Takes / offsets	Exact modeling implication
Q3	Celsius revenue	Management expects “slight increases” versus Q2; brand health and repeat purchasing remain strong.	Continued cycling of SKU optimization and stronger prior-year innovation; management admitted it rationalized too deeply.	Essentially flat to slightly higher sequentially for brand Celsius. Q2 reference points were net sales down ~12% YoY and tracked retail sales down 2%.
Q3	Revenue interpretation	Management clarified that the Q2-like comparison principally referred to dollars; it also expects broad similarity in percentage trends.	Scan data may fluctuate, and the statement does not apply to consolidated Celsius Holdings revenue.	Do not treat “Q3 like Q2” as consolidated guidance.
Q3	Inventory/shipments	Moving inventory from mixing centers to regional DCs should improve service, turns, and proximity to retailers.	Rebalancing continued in July; DCs hold less inventory because they turn faster, producing a one-time shipment-timing drag.	Reported brand revenue may understate consumer sell-through/depletions during the transition.
Q3	Celsius distribution	July space gains arrived; a September end-cap-to-cold-space conversion provides better placement. Hundreds of merchandisers and salespeople are being added.	Fixtures and cold placements arrived later than originally expected and do not always increase absolute shelf space.	Execution and placement improve before meaningful innovation returns.
Q3	Alani Nu	Momentum expected to continue; service levels are rising; robust back-half LTO calendar should drive brand and category sales.	DSD mix, promotional allowances, bill-backs, pack/channel mix, and inventory timing continue to create a gap between scans and reported revenue.	Positive growth direction, but no Q3 growth rate was provided.
Q3	Rockstar	Integration is complete; velocity improved after rationalization; sales are tracking to acquisition expectations.	Near-term objective remains stabilization rather than explicit growth.	No Q3 growth target.
Q3	Gross margin	Alani integration savings build further; Rockstar’s improved case costs begin flowing through; freight and supply-chain benefits continue.	Diesel and aluminum largely offset underlying improvement.	Gross margin expected to remain high-40s and consistent with Q2’s ~48%; upside if fuel or aluminum moderates.
Q3	Operating expenses	G&A discipline continues.	Brand investment remains elevated.	Sales and marketing broadly consistent with Q2; G&A also consistent with Q2. No Q3 EBITDA-margin guide.
Q3/H2	Capital allocation	Interest rate reduced 25 bps in July, with another potential 25-bp reduction; repurchases expected to continue.	No specific quarterly repurchase amount or timing.	$124 million repurchased in H1 against a $300 million authorization.
Q4	Celsius consumer trend	Begins lapping the 2025 rationalization; distribution and cold-placement gains continue; prior-year comparisons become easier.	SKUs roll out gradually and normal category seasonality remains.	A slow build, not a direct scan-data snapback. “Exit the year back in growth” does not necessarily mean every Q4 week or the full quarter is positive.
Q4	Reported Celsius revenue	Softer reported-revenue comparison creates the potential for reported growth to outperform scanner growth—or move in the opposite direction.	Shipment and warehouse timing can still obscure the underlying consumer trend.	Model reported sales separately from scans; management gave no magnitude.
Q4	Retail distribution	Better cold placement with another retailer and a new-channel retailer coming onboard.	Some changes improve placement rather than total space.	Incremental support for the Q4 build, but not quantified.
Q4	Alani Witch’s Brew	Management calls it the brand’s biggest-ever LTO and expects it to be larger than in prior years.	It is also cycling a substantial prior-year launch comparison.	Strong event, but not clean incremental growth.
Q4	Alani reported growth	CFO explicitly expects Alani growth.	Q4 2025 included an inventory/pipe fill, creating a difficult reported comparison.	Growth expected, but shipment growth may differ materially from retail scans.
Q4/Q1	2027 innovation load-ins	Some Q1 2027 innovation may ship in November or December, helping Q4 reported revenue.	Timing with Pepsi’s DSD system was “not fully baked”; shipments could instead fall in Q1.	Material timing variable between Q4 and Q1; management promised more detail after Q3 earnings.
2027	Celsius growth	Management expects the brand back in growth and participating in category growth; strong base business, repeat rates, and retailer interest support confidence.	Recovery depends on innovation, retail execution, and successful replacement of removed SKUs.	Directional growth commitment; no rate or annual revenue target.
2027	Celsius innovation	“Robust” calendar; meaningful new offering for the weak 16-ounce line, beginning early 2027.	Product details, retailer acceptance, launch timing, and load-in cadence remain undisclosed.	Primary Celsius growth catalyst.
2027	SKU strategy	Preserve national core SKUs and replace the weak tail with permanent innovation throughout the year.	Tail optimization will continue; risk of renewed SKU proliferation must be managed.	Strategic change from net SKU cutting toward continuous replacement and portfolio productivity.
2027	Alani Nu	New products, activations, programming, channel expansion, and a growing permanent national core; management expects top-line growth while cycling difficult comparisons.	LTOs remain seasonal and prior pipe fills distort comparisons.	More base-business growth should gradually reduce dependence on individual LTOs.
2027	Rockstar	Stabilized assortment, integration complete, encouraging velocity, refreshed packaging/logo, and stronger positioning.	Management is still rebuilding the foundation and core identity.	“Well-positioned,” but no explicit 2027 growth commitment.
2027	International	Select international Alani launches; Celsius/Alani remain underpenetrated; infrastructure and teams are established; management cited green shoots in Australia and Paris.	International remains a small share of current revenue.	The >15% of revenue target applies over five years, not specifically to 2027.
2027	Manufacturing/supply chain	Second North Carolina line delivers its full-year benefit; vertical integration, direct sourcing, procurement, and freight optimization expand.	Commodity inflation and inventory flow-through can delay realization.	Concrete gross-margin/productivity support, but no quantified benefit.
2027	Revenue growth management	Larger opportunity from price-pack architecture and improved trade-spend returns; team and capabilities are now in place.	Higher DSD mix carries greater trade investment and bill-backs.	Expected to support margin expansion and improve gross-to-net conversion; no quantified margin target.
2027	Commercial execution	Retailers began planning earlier; management reported successful retailer meetings and alignment with more than 1,000 Pepsi employees.	2026 fixture delays demonstrate that retail implementation can lag planning.	Raises confidence in distribution and launch execution, but remains qualitative.
2027	Consolidated outlook	Management expects portfolio top-line/category growth and continued P&L/shareholder-value improvement.	No consolidated revenue, gross-margin, EBITDA, EPS, or free-cash-flow framework.	Treat 2027 commentary as strategic direction—not numerical guidance.

Source

Modeledge transcript: Celsius Holdings Inc. (CELH), Q2 2026 earnings call, August 6, 2026. Document ID: `d2bdcf13f85d9e66effd06ec878e53f7`.