VICR: Cerebras Buildout and 2027 Revenue Scenarios

One-off research note • October 9, 2026 • Vicor Corporation (NASDAQ: VICR) • Related company: Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS)Conditional on Cerebras representing 10% of Vicor’s 2026 revenue, an illustrative central range is $100–150 million of Cerebras-related Vicor sales in 2027, with a stronger scenario of $175–250 million. Against a $64 million starting assumption, the central range would contribute approximately 6–13 percentage points to Vicor’s total revenue growth.These are scenario estimates, not company guidance or an independently verified customer forecast. Vicor benefits from equipment purchases; Cerebras can also grow cloud revenue by generating more revenue from installed equipment.What is confirmed—and what remains an assumptionSources: Vicor Q2 call, Cerebras Q2 release, Cerebras Q2 call.The 13 locations are Alabama, Dallas, Denver, Minneapolis, Santa Clara and Stockton; Manitoba, Montreal, Saskatchewan and Toronto; and France, Finland and Norway. Public disclosures do not establish an exact number of new Cerebras-equipped data centers opening during 2027. Cerebras Q2 callBuildout relevant to 2027The rows are not additive: customer commitments, regional totals and individual campuses overlap. Gross facility power also differs from IT power and the portion serving Cerebras equipment.OpenAI’s contract separates installed capacity from annual additionsThese are contractual delivery commitments, not confirmation of completed construction. The contract redacts the number of data centers; hardware purchases under the contemplated purchase agreement count against the same capacity commitments. Filed agreement, §2OpenAI’s cumulative capacity doubles in 2027, while its scheduled annual addition remains 250 MW. Cloud revenue can therefore grow much faster than annual component purchasing. Cerebras also describes higher throughput per system from disaggregated inference, further weakening a direct revenue-to-hardware growth relationship. Cerebras Q2 callConditional Vicor revenue modelStarting assumptions: $640 million illustrative Vicor FY2026 revenue × 10% Cerebras exposure = $64 million.Dividing that $64 million by the initial 250 MW OpenAI tranche gives a rough benchmark of $256,000 of Vicor revenue per MW. This is an inferred calibration—not disclosed component pricing. It assumes that tranche reasonably represents the equipment underlying 2026 purchases; the actual relationship, other deployments and shipment timing remain unverified.> Cerebras-related Vicor revenue = equipment capacity represented by purchases recognized in the year × effective Vicor component revenue per MW.Capacity here means Cerebras equipment equivalent, excluding unrelated tenants and facility overhead. Shipments may precede site opening, including purchases for 2028 installations. Growth contributions equal incremental revenue divided by the $640 million company baseline.The central case assumes the 250 MW OpenAI addition plus approximately 100 MW from other customers, hyperscalers or advance purchases, and higher Vicor component value per MW. The strong case requires another 250 MW beyond OpenAI’s scheduled addition and substantially higher component value. Both the additional volumes and the dollar content assumptions are estimates; the announced 600 MW footprint alone does not establish them.The $350,000 and $450,000 assumptions are approximately 37% and 76% above the inferred $256,000 benchmark. Public disclosures do not establish those increases. Higher processor power or a new system generation does not automatically raise Vicor dollars per MW.A roughly flat purchasing cadence supports approximately $60–65 million, and delays or reduced exposure could produce a lower result. Reaching $250–300 million—25–30% of a hypothetical $1 billion Vicor year—requires assumptions beyond the central case.The largest unresolved inputs are actual 2026 customer exposure, Vicor content per system, supplier share, and purchasing dates. If starting exposure is 5% instead of 10%, this calibrated model’s dollar estimates roughly halve, holding the other assumptions constant. The model concerns component sales; it does not assign Vicor’s company-wide royalty revenue to Cerebras. These sales belong within a total Vicor forecast; adding them on top of consensus risks double-counting.