Smadex’s Unnamed Hong Kong Advertiser — Leading Identity Theories
Executive summary
Entravision has not identified the large Hong Kong mobile-gaming advertiser behind Smadex’s recent growth. Public theories include
IGG and
Tencent;
First Fun/FunFly, developer and publisher of
Last War: Survival, is another credible circumstantial candidate.
The Q2 2026 filing materially changes the probability assessment. The advertiser generated approximately
$91.2M of Q2 billings through Entravision, up about 29% sequentially and equal to approximately half of Q2 ATS revenue. At that scale, Tencent or a very large publisher such as First Fun/FunFly is easier to reconcile financially than IGG, even though IGG remains the best timing-and-title match and the only candidate explicitly named in the equity research reviewed.
Revised indicative ranking, with low confidence:
- Tencent/Level Infinite or a Tencent-linked gaming entity — strongest budget-capacity fit.
- First Fun/FunFly — strong Hong Kong, 4X-gaming, and user-acquisition intensity fit.
- IGG — strongest published and launch-timing theory, but Q2 spend is difficult to reconcile with its total marketing budget.
- Another Hong Kong-based Chinese strategy-game publisher — remains entirely possible.
No candidate is confirmed.
Confirmed clues
Entravision’s filings establish that the customer:
- Is a recently acquired ATS/Smadex advertiser.
- Was acquired in the second half of 2025.
- Is located in Hong Kong.
- Is a mobile-gaming customer.
- Became Entravision’s largest customer.
- Pays currently, according to management.
- Has created material revenue and cash-flow dependence.
- Appears to allocate spending across multiple DSPs, according to investor-relations commentary reported by investors.
Entravision recognizes digital advertising revenue
gross because it considers itself the principal in the transaction. The customer figures therefore approximate media billings handled through Smadex, not Smadex’s take rate, gross profit, or operating profit.
Size and speed of the ramp
| Period | Entravision revenue | Largest-customer share | Implied customer billings |
|---|
| FY2025 | $447.6M | 9% | ~$40.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $197.0M | 36% | ~$70.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $227.9M | 40% | ~$91.2M |
| H1 2026 | $424.9M | 38% | ~$161.5M |
Q2 calculation
The Q2 10-Q states that the largest advertiser represented
40% of total Q2 revenue:
$227.901M × 40% = $91.160M
The filing separately reports that the two largest advertisers represented 40% and 5% of Q2 revenue and 38% and 5% of first-half revenue.
Cross-checking the rounded first-half disclosure:
$424.872M × 38% = $161.451M H1 billings
Less Q1 estimate of $70.910M
= $90.542M implied Q2 billings
The $90.5M cross-check and $91.2M direct Q2 calculation are consistent; the difference results from the filing’s rounded customer percentages.
Concentration inside ATS
Q2 ATS revenue was
$182.8M. The implied $91.2M customer contribution therefore represented approximately
49.9% of Q2 ATS revenue.
For the first half, implied customer billings of $161.5M represented approximately
47.9% of H1 ATS revenue of $337.4M.
Sequential growth
Estimated customer billings increased from approximately $70.9M in Q1 to $91.2M in Q2:
($91.2M ÷ $70.9M) − 1 ≈ 28.6%
This is an extraordinary progression: approximately $40M during the customer’s partial first year, followed by roughly $161M in the first six months of 2026. H1 2026 customer billings were approximately four times the customer’s entire reported 2025 contribution.
The ramp likely reflects an initial test allocation that produced competitive return on ad spend, followed by rapid budget increases as Smadex accumulated conversion data. It validates Smadex’s performance for this advertiser, but the spending is not necessarily contracted or durable. Mobile publishers can quickly move budgets when another DSP produces better ROAS.
Theory 1: Tencent/Level Infinite — best capacity fit after Q2
Tencent is the principal name in investor speculation.
The fit:
- Tencent has ample capacity: 2025 selling and marketing expense was RMB41.7B, roughly US$5.8B.
- A $91M quarterly Smadex allocation would be modest relative to Tencent’s aggregate promotional budget.
- Tencent operates major international mobile-game franchises and can use several DSPs simultaneously.
- It controls or uses multiple Hong Kong and international entities.
- Its global publishing operations could allocate substantial open-internet budgets without making Smadex the dominant channel.
The objections:
- Tencent is a diversified technology conglomerate, while Entravision describes the customer specifically as a mobile-gaming customer.
- Tencent’s principal international publishing entity, Proxima Beta/Level Infinite, is generally Singapore-based.
- No identified Tencent title matches the Q3 2025 onboarding and early-2026 acceleration as neatly as IGG’s release schedule.
- The theory remains investor speculation, not a disclosure by either company.
Assessment: the Q2 billings make Tencent substantially more plausible because it can support the disclosed scale while continuing to spend heavily through other DSPs.
Theory 2: First Fun/FunFly — strongest large-publisher alternative
First Fun Hong Kong Limited originally developed
Last War: Survival. Its current official publisher and business entity is Singapore-based FunFly Pte. Ltd., weakening but not eliminating the Hong Kong clue.
The fit:
- First Fun used a Hong Kong corporate entity and remains associated with Hong Kong in legal and intellectual-property records.
- Last War is a high-LTV 4X strategy title.
- It generated an estimated $475M of consumer spending in Q1 2025 alone.
- It is known for exceptionally aggressive and highly visible user-acquisition campaigns.
- Its game economics and advertising intensity could plausibly support approximately $161M of first-half Smadex billings.
The principal objection is timing:
Last War was already enormous before the apparent Q3 2025 Smadex onboarding. The ramp would therefore represent Smadex winning a rapidly growing share of an established advertising budget rather than supporting a new title launch.
The current Singapore publisher also makes the filing’s “located in Hong Kong” wording less exact, although the contracting entity could differ from the public-facing publisher.
Assessment: more financially plausible than IGG after incorporating Q2, with a strong product and historical legal-entity fit.
Theory 3: IGG — best timing fit, weaker budget fit
An Industry Capital Research note explicitly named
IGG as a possible customer.
The fit:
- IGG maintains a principal place of business in Hong Kong.
- Its portfolio is concentrated in high-LTV 4X games such as Lords Mobile, Doomsday: Last Survivors, Viking Rise, and Fate War.
- Fate War launched globally in August 2025, close to the apparent Smadex onboarding.
- Doomsday: Last Survivors reached record monthly billings in December 2025 and January 2026.
- IGG stated that it intended to scale Fate War marketing in 2026.
The Q2 scale creates a significant objection:
- IGG incurred approximately HK$2.77B / US$355M of total selling and distribution expense in 2025.
- Annualizing Q2’s implied Smadex billings produces approximately $365M.
- That is roughly equal to IGG’s entire 2025 selling and distribution budget, even though the mystery customer reportedly uses multiple DSPs.
IGG could still fit if its 2026 marketing budget increased substantially, if Q2 was a temporary seasonal peak, or if Smadex captured an unusually large share of specific international campaigns. But the burden of proof is now higher.
Assessment: best title-and-timing match and most credible published theory, but materially weakened by the Q2 budget arithmetic.
Other possible publishers
The customer could be another Chinese mobile-game publisher using a Hong Kong contracting subsidiary. Publishers associated with
Whiteout Survival,
Kingshot,
Last Z,
Puzzles & Survival, and other 4X titles have the necessary user-acquisition orientation. Chinese developers frequently use Hong Kong or Singapore entities for international distribution and advertising, so domicile alone is not dispositive.
What the Q2 disclosure changes
Before Q2, IGG’s Q3 2025 launch timing made it the leading circumstantial candidate. The Q2 filing raises estimated customer billings to approximately $91M in one quarter and $161M in six months.
That scale favors a publisher with either:
- A multibillion-dollar marketing budget, such as Tencent; or
- A single extraordinarily successful title with aggressive global UA economics, such as Last War.
IGG remains possible, but a sustained run rate near Q2 would consume most or all of its previously reported promotion budget before accounting for other DSPs.
Bottom line
Tencent now has the strongest budget-capacity fit. First Fun/FunFly has the strongest combination of a Hong Kong legal history, 4X economics, and massive visible advertising. IGG remains the best published and launch-timing theory but becomes less likely if Q2 spending is representative of a sustained run rate.Identification still requires a company disclosure, contract counterparty, litigation filing, customer reference, or independent mobile-ad-spend data directly connecting a publisher to Smadex.
Sources