| Period | Basis | Core revenue | Core cloud | Core hardware | OpenAI revenue | OpenAI deployment | Core gross margin | Concise note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | Actual / model anchor | 209.9 | 127.7 | 82.1 | 56.8 GAAP; ~44.8 underlying service | ~17.2–32.5 MW estimated; ~25 MW midpoint | 40.6%; cloud 41.8% | OpenAI underlying estimate removes ~$14.5 pass-through revenue and adds back ~$2.5 warrant amortization. MW was not disclosed. |
| Q3 2026 | Company guide / model | 214–216 guided | ~135–145 estimated | ~70–80 estimated | ~50–70 estimated underlying service | ~25–40 MW average estimated | 38–40% guided | Minimal sequential growth; expected margin trough while rented systems remain in use. No company mix guidance. |
| Q4 2026 | Implied guide / model | 262.8–274.8 implied | ~180–200 estimated | ~69–89 estimated | ~90–130 estimated underlying service | ~45–75 MW average; 250 MW contracted exit target | Improvement expected | New owned data centers are expected to enter service; much of the 250 MW may arrive late and contribute mainly to 2027. |
| FY 2026 | Company guide / model | 880–890 guided | ~520–555 estimated | ~325–370 estimated | ~200–260 estimated underlying service | 250 MW required by Dec. 31 | 41–43% guided | Foundation/buildout year; GAAP revenue remains distorted by warrants and pass-throughs. |
| 2027 entry run rate | Contract-based | — | — | — | ~419–556 per quarter; $1.68–2.23B annualized | 250 MW | 40%+ working assumption | Represents the first 250 MW at approximately $6.7–8.9M of annual service revenue per MW. |
| FY 2027 | Management floor / model frame | More than ~$2.64–2.67B | Cloud-led | Lumpy / undisclosed | At least the first-250-MW run rate; higher as the next tranche ramps | 250 MW entering year; 500 MW contracted exit target | Expected to expand | Management expects more than 3× 2026 core revenue; actual OpenAI revenue depends on timing of the second 250 MW tranche. |
| 2027 exit run rate | Contract-based | — | — | — | ~$3.35–4.45B annualized | 500 MW | — | Exit-rate illustration only; not a FY2027 revenue forecast. |
| Key modeling convention | Value / treatment |
|---|---|
| OpenAI underlying revenue/MW-year | ~$6.7–8.9M, excluding separately reimbursed data-center pass-throughs |
| Q2 headline cloud revenue/MW | ~$20–21M annualized only if ~24–25 MW covered the entire revenue-producing fleet; likely overstated because total cloud revenue includes non-OpenAI capacity and services |
| OpenAI underlying Q2 revenue | $56.8M reported − $14.5M pass-through + $2.5M warrant amortization ≈ $44.8M |
| Q4 implied revenue | FY guide less Q1 actual, Q2 actual, and Q3 guide |
| Deployment disclosure limitation | Cerebras disclosed 600+ MW live or contracted through 2027, but did not disclose current live or average billable MW |
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