Based on the transcripts,
Shift4 has not provided formal guidance for 2026 yet. However, there are several important signals about their expectations:
Medium-Term Framework (Most Likely Scenario)
At their Analyst Day in February 2025, Shift4 provided three guidance scenarios, with the "most likely" scenario calling for 30%+ gross revenue less network fee growth and 30% EBITDA growth, all with the ultimate goal of exiting at a run rate of $1 billion in free cash flow. With the acquisition of Global Blue now complete, they are clearly tracking to deliver on the most likely objectives established in February. [
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Key Expectations for 2026
Management indicated that Global Blue will contribute organic growth in the "mid teens" range going forward. They believe their ability to deliver core products into new markets is "quite strong" with product positioning inside these markets being "very good." They suggested that neither a conservative scenario (Global Blue executes as is) nor an aggressive scenario (they slow down and Shift4 introduces cross-sell) is the likely outcome - instead, they expect Global Blue to "continue to execute and we introduce products and I think they accelerate beyond what they've traditionally done." [
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Capital Allocation Assumptions
When laying out their most likely case, Shift4 contemplated about $200 million a year in redeployment into M&A opportunities that either give them access to new markets or provide cross-sell opportunities. [
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Timing
Management indicated they will provide formal 2026 guidance when they report year-end results. The transcripts suggest investors should expect continued strong growth with the integration benefits from Global Blue beginning to materialize throughout 2026.