Duolingo (DUOL) - FCF growth-multiplier valuation on management guidance

Assumptions as of 2026-08-20

USD

Updated Aug 20, 2026 · Revised 1 time

as of 2026-08-20

Fair value per share

$145.85

Upside vs market

12.1%

Net cash per share

$27.94

Justified multiple of normalized FCF

16.51

Relative growth decay per year (gentle - reacceleration thesis)

10.0%

Discount rate

10.0%

Entry revenue growth (FY2026 guided 16.3%)

16.3%

Normalized FCF margin (NO SBC charge - buybacks offset dilution)

30.0%

Cash plus short and long-term investments, no debt ($M)

1,417$M

Market price ($)

$130.16

FY2026E revenue, management guidance ($M)

1,207$M

SBC as pct of revenue (guided ~15%, informational)

15.0%

Diluted shares per management dilution table (M)

50.7M

	FY2026E
FY2026E revenue (guidance)	1,207
Decayed 7-yr CAGR	12.1%
Yr-7 revenue multiple	2.23
Terminal multiple	14.45
Justified mult. of normalized FCF	16.51
Normalized FCF (pre-SBC)	362
Enterprise value	5,978
+ Net cash and investments	1,417
= Equity value	7,395
Implied EV/revenue	4.95
Memo: guided SBC	181
Memo: FCF if SBC were charged	181

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