CBRS risk-adjusted 2029 EV/Sales valuation

Sources

1. October 5 Model Edge reference CBRS price $181.55, refreshed 2026-10-05T15:03:35.892717-06:00. Price-only inputs refresh market-relative outputs; BRUN also refreshes its established peer-relative multiple. (accessed 2026-10-05)
2. October 5: reference price rose 9.08% to $181.55. Reuters syndication and Benzinga report Altman reaffirmed the Cerebras partnership on October 2; original X post was inaccessible (403), so the statement is independently reported rather than directly inspected. This is a credible sentiment catalyst, not quantified guidance. Separately, the September 29 issuer announcement confirms a multi-year General Compute deployment beginning Q1 2027, with no disclosed Cerebras revenue, margin or minimum purchase economics. The $400M Upper90 facility belongs to General Compute, not Cerebras. Preserve 2029 revenue $6.5B, 7x, 14% discount rate, $5B excess net cash and 285M diluted shares. — cerebras.ai (accessed 2026-10-05)
3. Additional source for the October 5 review; see dated evidence note. — thedailyguardian.com (accessed 2026-10-05)
4. Additional source for the October 5 review; see dated evidence note. — benzinga.com (accessed 2026-10-05)
5. September 30 Modeledge reference CBRS price $177.65, refreshed 2026-09-30T15:27:35.611057-06:00. This quote refresh changes market-relative outputs; any intrinsic effects are separately explained. For USAU only, the existing financing-price formula mechanically links valuation to price. (accessed 2026-09-30)
6. September 30 shares fell 8.87% to $177.65. Final IPO prospectus confirms an 8.9% release of eligible locked securities on September 30: an existing-holder supply event, not new primary issuance. It is a plausible contributor, not a proven complete cause. Reviewed all nine indexed filings since the model's September 10 as-of, including $6.394M/$77.909M officer Form 144 proposed sales, existing option exercises, in-kind fund distributions and a preplanned CTO sale; do not sum overlapping notices and transactions as new dilution. Gimlet's September 28 primary announcement plans 100MW and first datacenter later in 2026, with CS-4 access expected in 2027, but gives no contract revenue, margin or funding schedule. No verified customer cancellation or guidance cut found. Preserve $6.5B 2029 core revenue, 7x EV/sales, 14% discount rate, 285M fully diluted shares and $5B excess-cash assumption; financing/execution remain unresolved. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-30)
7. Additional supporting source for the September 30 CBRS review; see the first dated source note. — gimletlabs.ai (accessed 2026-09-30)
8. Additional supporting source for the September 30 CBRS review; see the first dated source note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-30)
9. Additional supporting source for the September 30 CBRS review; see the first dated source note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-30)
10. Q2 2026 results — core revenue $209.9M, FY2026 core guidance $880–890M, RPO $25.4B, IPO proceeds, OpenAI/AWS capacity narrative — sec.gov
11. Q2 2026 10-Q — Class A/B/N shares outstanding as of Aug 5 2026, RPO recognition cadence, OpenAI arrangement, cash/debt/warrants — sec.gov
12. IPO prospectus (424B4) — $185 IPO price, 30M Class A shares offered, historical revenue path through 2025 — sec.gov
13. Street consensus Strong Buy / ~$292 average PT and FY2026–27 revenue framing (stress-test vs risk-adjusted model) — stockanalysis.com
14. Independent 2029 EV/Sales framing (~9.5x compute-peer discount; OpenAI tranche conversion) — sixsigmaresearch.com