Campbell's forward adjusted EPS valuation

Campbell Soup Company (CPB)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-10-07
USD
Updated Oct 7, 2026 · Revised 9 times
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Campbell's forward adjusted EPS valuation

FY27 adjusted EPS valuation using the September 3 guidance midpoint and existing P/E multiples. Bear and bull flex execution around guidance. Quarterly dividend was cut to $0.25; dividend yield is shown separately and is not added to fair value.

as of 2026-10-07

Fair value per share
$17.25
Upside/downside
-10.2%
Forward adjusted net income
$531.3
Implied equity value
$5.3k
Target forward P/E
10.0
Annualized dividend
$1.00
Indicated dividend yield
5.2%

Capitalization

308.00M shares

Forecast

1.73$/share

Income

0.25$

Market

19.21$/share
Latest CPB quote · updated Oct 9, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Valuation

10.00x

Sources

  1. October 7 Model Edge reference CPB quote $18.9, refreshed 2026-10-07T15:03:03.733051-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this price; valuation changes are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-07)
  2. October 7: new annual-report accession0001308179-26-000426 timed out in extraction; exhibit lookup returned no document, and SEC/issuer-linked annual report could not be opened. Issuer site additionally lists October7 proxy0000016732-26-000031 not returned by the current filing discovery; targeted extraction returned no matches, which is not proof of no material content. Do not mark either fully reviewed. Existing FY27 EPS$1.725/10x/308Mshares/$1dividend remains unchanged at$17.25; refresh reference price only. October5 $300M note closing was already known. — investor.thecampbellscompany.com (accessed 2026-10-07)
  3. Additional supporting source for October 7 review; see the dated evidence note. — investor.thecampbellscompany.com (accessed 2026-10-07)
  4. October 5 Model Edge reference CPB price $19.3, refreshed 2026-10-05T15:03:34.751878-06:00. Price-only inputs refresh market-relative outputs; BRUN also refreshes its established peer-relative multiple. (accessed 2026-10-05)
  5. October 5 8-K confirms issuance today of $300M 8.5% junior subordinated notes due 2057, resolving the previously unconfirmed settlement. It does not provide the complete cash/debt retirement and net-interest bridge. Gross annual coupon is $25.5M; do not subtract it again or add unmatched gross debt to the EPS model. New executive grants/option records and trust distributions do not revise FY2027 EPS guidance or its 308M guided diluted-share basis. Preserve $1.725 adjusted EPS, 10x and $17.25 fair value, with $1 annual dividend. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-05)
  6. October 2 Model Edge reference CPB quote $19.62, refreshed 2026-10-02T17:10:09.151864-06:00. Price alone is not evidence to change operating forecasts; BRUN separately refreshes the existing peer-relative valuation. (accessed 2026-10-02)
  7. October 1 final pricing resolves the prior blank prospectus: $300M 8.5% junior subordinated notes due April 2057, $297M proceeds after underwriting discount before expenses, expected October 5 settlement. Intended uses include 5.20% March 2027 notes, commercial paper and general purposes. Annual gross coupon is $25.5M, but net incremental interest depends on actual retirement amounts, timing and guidance treatment. No closing or complete paired uses disclosed yet. Preserve FY2027 EPS $1.725, 10x and dividend $1.00; do not add $300M unmatched debt. Nine new executive Forms 4 are tax withholding, not a forecast reset. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-02)
  8. Additional supporting source for the October 2 CPB review; see the first dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-02)
  9. September 30 Modeledge reference CPB price $19.83, refreshed 2026-09-30T15:27:36.646785-06:00. This quote refresh changes market-relative outputs; any intrinsic effects are separately explained. For USAU only, the existing financing-price formula mechanically links valuation to price. (accessed 2026-09-30)
  10. September 30 preliminary 424B2 describes fixed-to-fixed-reset junior subordinated notes due 2057 with principal, coupon and proceeds still blank. Intended use includes repayment of March 2027 notes and commercial paper plus general purposes. This is neither final pricing nor proof of settlement; do not add gross debt/cash or assume interest savings. Preserve $1.725 EPS, 10x and $17.25 intrinsic value. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-30)
  11. September 28 Modeledge reference CPB stock price $20.04, retrieved 2026-09-28T16:46:39.194527-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. Operating assumptions are unchanged except separately documented updates. (accessed 2026-09-28)
  12. September 28: eleven director ownership reports show routine small common awards and cash-settled phantom units. Phantom units are not issued common stock; these records do not revise FY2027 EPS guidance or the 308M guided diluted-share basis. Preserve $1.725 EPS x 10 and dividend $1.00. Full annual-report review remains unfinished. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-28)
  13. Additional supporting record for the September 28 CPB review. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-28)
  14. Additional supporting record for the September 28 CPB review. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-28)
  15. Additional supporting record for the September 28 CPB review. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-28)
  16. Additional supporting record for the September 28 CPB review. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-28)
  17. Additional supporting record for the September 28 CPB review. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-28)
  18. Additional supporting record for the September 28 CPB review. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-28)
  19. Additional supporting record for the September 28 CPB review. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-28)
  20. Additional supporting record for the September 28 CPB review. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-28)
  21. Additional supporting record for the September 28 CPB review. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-28)
  22. Additional supporting record for the September 28 CPB review. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-28)
  23. September 24: reviewed selected FY2026 10-K financial and financing sections, not the entire annual filing. FY2026 sales $9.744B and GAAP EPS $1.31 include special items; the $117M trademark impairments are not a second cash deduction from the forward P/E model. Preserve FY2027 adjusted EPS $1.725 midpoint, 10x P/E and 308M guided shares. La Regina's second $140M payment is due May 2027, payable in cash or shares; avoid duplicating dilution already included in guidance. The $1.85B facility extension to April 2031 is maturity relief, not a new draw or cash receipt. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-24)
  24. September 24 reference CPB price $19.85; quote refresh timestamp 2026-09-24T15:15:27.0906-06:00. This changes market-relative outputs; price alone does not change operating assumptions. (accessed 2026-09-24)
  25. Supporting primary filing for the September 24 source review described above. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-24)
  26. Campbell's reaffirmed fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.15 to $2.25 in its third-quarter results. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-18)
  27. FY27 adjusted EPS guidance $1.65-$1.80; diluted shares approximately 308M. Quarterly dividend cut from $0.39 to $0.25 to accelerate deleveraging. — investor.thecampbellscompany.com (accessed 2026-09-07)
  28. September 8, 2026 provider reference quote refreshed to $21.76; price-dependent outputs updated. No new indexed company activity since the September 7 review; existing intrinsic assumptions retained. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-08)
  29. September 9 conference reaffirmed FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance $1.65-$1.80. Recovery depends on pricing, snacks consumption and second-half gross-margin expansion; leverage reduction is a multi-year process. Retained $1.725 EPS, 10x P/E and $1 annual dividend. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-09)

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