Confluent (CFLT) - Graham-Dodd SaaS growth-multiplier valuation

Assumptions as of 2026-08-18

USD

Updated Aug 18, 2026

as of 2026-08-18

Max justified price per share

$9.22

Upside vs market

-70.3%

Decayed 7-yr CAGR

13.6%

Justified multiple of normalized FCF

18.94

Relative growth decay per year

15.0%

Discount rate

10.0%

Entry revenue growth (FY2025 YoY)

21.1%

Mature FCF margin (AFTER charging SBC in full)

10.0%

Net cash incl. marketable securities less debt ($M)

958$M

Market price ($)

$30.99

FY2025 revenue ($M)

1,167$M

Diluted shares (M)

343.8M

	FY2025A
FY2025 revenue	1,167
Decayed 7-yr CAGR	13.6%
Yr-7 revenue multiple	2.43
Terminal multiple	15.16
Justified mult. of normalized FCF	18.94
Normalized FCF	117
Enterprise value	2,210
+ Net cash	958
= Equity value	3,168
Implied EV/revenue	1.89

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