ACM Research 2027 normalized operating earnings valuation

Sources

1. October 5 Model Edge reference ACMR price $76.17, refreshed 2026-10-05T15:03:35.695085-06:00. Price-only inputs refresh market-relative outputs; BRUN also refreshes its established peer-relative multiple. (accessed 2026-10-05)
2. October 5: reference price fell 8.65% to $76.17. Activity since the October 2 review contains no new indexed filing or transcript. Issuer news still ends with the September 30 backlog announcement already reflected in the model. No verified new operating or regulatory catalyst warrants an assumption revision. Preserve 2027 revenue growth 25% on $1.15B guidance midpoint, 18% GAAP operating margin including SBC, 20% tax, 73.2% subsidiary attribution, 25x, 80% cash credit and 74M diluted shares; do not capitalize investment gains or add the subsidiary stake twice. — ir.acmr.com (accessed 2026-10-05)
3. Q2 2026 revenue $292.919M, GAAP operating income $49.743M, H1 revenue $524.182M, and 2026 revenue guidance $1.125B-$1.175B (midpoint $1.150B). — ir.acmr.com
4. June 30 2026 ACM Shanghai ownership 73.2%; cash and equivalents $969.229M; short-term time deposits $365.055M; borrowings $107.218M current, $40.787M current portion of long-term debt, and $192.904M long-term. Restricted cash $21.358M is excluded from modeled cash. Q2 diluted weighted-average shares 71.838908M. — sec.gov
5. Q2 investment gains are excluded from modeled earnings: $69.592M unrealized short-term investment gains and $21.097M equity-method investment income. The equity-method increase primarily reflects securities sales at an investee. — sec.gov
6. September 29 2026 Shanghai subsidiary backlog $2.5B, up 88.2% year over year, includes shipped tools not recognized under Chinese GAAP and future shipments; it is not a guaranteed revenue schedule. — sec.gov
7. FY2025 revenue $901.309M, operating cash flow -$10.325M and purchases of PP&E $56.283M. Combined with 2026/2025 interim cash flows, conventional trailing FCF is -$118.738M. — sec.gov
8. Reference share price $83.60 on October 2 2026 at 12:03 PM Eastern; the tracked portfolio may subsequently use a newer market quote. — stockanalysis.com
9. Analyst assumptions, not management guidance or peer-derived estimates: bear/base/bull 2027 growth 0%/25%/45%, operating margins 14%/18%/21%, multiples 18x/25x/30x, cash credit fractions 55%/80%/100%; normalized tax 20% and forecast diluted shares 74M.