Marathon Petroleum Q2 2026 SOTP valuation

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-08-08
USD
Updated Aug 8, 2026 · Revised 5 times
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Marathon Petroleum Q2 2026 SOTP valuation

Through-cycle sum-of-the-parts valuation separating standalone MPC refining, renewable diesel and corporate economics from the public value of its approximately 64% MPLX stake. Q2 balance-sheet and share-count facts are current. The base case does not annualize exceptionally strong Q2 crack spreads; it uses normalized standalone EBITDA and the latest available MPLX public equity value and MPC price after the Q2 earnings call.

as of 2026-08-08

Standalone enterprise value
$32.50
MPC value of MPLX stake
$34.40
MPC equity value
$66.46
Fair value per share
$234.83
Upside/downside
-30.2%

MPLX stake

10.0%
$59.72$B
64.0%

Market

$336.42
Latest MPC quote · updated Aug 11, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Reported facts

283M
$0.44$B

Standalone MPC

5.0
$6.50$B

Valuation bridge ($B except per-share data)

Current
Standalone normalized EBITDA$6.50
Standalone multiple5.0
= Standalone enterprise value$32.50
+ MPC value of MPLX stake$34.40
- Standalone MPC net debt$0.44
= MPC equity value$66.46
Shares outstanding283
= Fair value per MPC share$234.83

Sources

  1. MPC Q2 2026 reported $6.655B of R&M adjusted EBITDA, $258M of Renewable Diesel adjusted EBITDA, $7.768B of consolidated cash, $7.176B of MPC debt, and 283M shares outstanding at June 30. — sec.gov
  2. MPC Q2 2026 reported $24.84 per barrel of R&M adjusted EBITDA, 94% crude capacity utilization, $2.8B of quarterly capital returns, and $6.1B of remaining repurchase authorization. — sec.gov
  3. MPC Q2 call reported $8.5B of adjusted EBITDA, roughly $6.7B of R&M adjusted EBITDA, 112% second-quarter margin capture, and a constructive refining macro through 2027. — modeledge.ai
  4. MPLX Q2 call reported $1.8B of adjusted EBITDA, a $2.9B 2026 growth capital outlook, mid-single-digit 2026 EBITDA growth, and targeted 12.5% annual distribution growth in 2026 and 2027. — modeledge.ai
  5. IEA July 2026 data showed global refinery runs remained 6 mb/d below the prior year and Middle East export refineries had not yet restarted, supporting a medium-term crack-spread premium. — iea.org
  6. EIA reported that U.S. refining capacity declined in 2025, including a 5% reduction in West Coast capacity from the Phillips 66 Los Angeles closure. — eia.gov
  7. Modeledge market data showed MPC at $298.20 and MPLX public equity value of approximately $59.717B as of August 7, 2026. — modeledge.ai
  8. Modeledge market data showed MPLX at $58.85 per unit and public equity value of approximately $59.717B as of August 7, 2026. — modeledge.ai

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