CMCSA conservative SOTP and FCF Hawk valuation

Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-06-24
USD
Updated Jun 24, 2026
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CMCSA conservative SOTP and FCF Hawk valuation

Conservative Comcast valuation based on the public bull thesis structure: value the connectivity cash engine, business services, and Universal theme parks separately, then cross-check against normalized free cash flow. The base case deliberately sits below the tweet's $30-$38 SOTP range by using lower cable multiples, a modest media/studios value, normalized FCF rather than tax-aided 2025 reported FCF, and no activist/control catalyst.

as of 2026-06-24

Fair value per CMCSA share
$27.75
Upside/downside to current price
2.4%
SOTP value per share
$24.33
Normalized FCF value per share
$31.17
SOTP enterprise value ($B)
$172.0
Residential Connectivity EV ($B)
$88.2
Business Services EV ($B)
$38.4
Theme Parks EV ($B)
$27.5
Sustainable dividend plus buyback yield
8.2%

Business Services

$5.9
6.5

Capital return

$1.32
$3.2

Capitalization

3,572
$85.1

FCF Cross-check

$12.25
11.0%

Market

$27.10
Latest CMCSA quote · updated Aug 25, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Other SOTP

$18.0

Residential Connectivity

$24.5
3.6

Theme Parks

$3.05
9

Valuation Blend

50%

Conservative SOTP bridge ($B except per-share data)

Current
Residential Connectivity EBITDA$24.5
Residential Connectivity multiple3.6
= Residential Connectivity EV$88.2
Business Services EBITDA$5.9
Business Services multiple6.5
= Business Services EV$38.4
Theme Parks EBITDA$3.05
Theme Parks multiple9.0
= Theme Parks EV$27.5
+ Media/Studios/other net value$18.0
= SOTP enterprise value$172.0
- Net debt$85.1
= SOTP equity value$86.9
SOTP value per share$24.33
FCF yield value per share$31.17
Blended fair value per share$27.75

Sources

  1. Modeledge market data on 2026-06-24 showed CMCSA at $22.64 and market cap around $80.9B. (accessed 2026-06-24)
  2. Comcast Q1 2026 10-Q reported cash of $9.468B, current debt of $5.394B, noncurrent debt of $89.218B, and about 3.572B Class A plus Class B shares outstanding shortly after quarter-end. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-06-24)
  3. Comcast Q1 2026 results reported Residential Connectivity & Platforms adjusted EBITDA of $6.434B, Business Services Connectivity adjusted EBITDA of $1.476B, Theme Parks adjusted EBITDA of $551M, free cash flow of $3.901B, and $2.5B returned to shareholders. — cmcsa.com (accessed 2026-06-24)
  4. Q1 2026 management commentary described broadband losses improving to 65K, broadband ARPU down 3.1%, fiber overbuild moving rapidly, and free wireless lines creating near-term ARPU pressure. — cmcsa.com (accessed 2026-06-24)
  5. Comcast Q4/FY 2025 results reported FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $37.4B, adjusted EPS of $4.31, free cash flow of $19.2B including tax/timing benefits, share count reduction of 5%, and a $9.4B pre-tax Hulu gain. — cmcsa.com (accessed 2026-06-24)

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