BTU Hawk EV/EBITDA valuation

As of 2026-06-15

USD

Updated Jun 20, 2026

BTU Hawk EV/EBITDA valuation

Hawk-compatible EV/EBITDA valuation for Peabody Energy. The model values BTU on normalized segment adjusted EBITDA because coal earnings and GAAP net income are highly cyclical and distorted by depreciation, reclamation, and Centurion ramp-up costs. Base case assumes a partial recovery from 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $454.9M and Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $82.5M, driven by Centurion moving toward regular longwall production in the second half of 2026. Equity value equals normalized EBITDA times a 4.8x EV/EBITDA multiple, plus cash and a $100M surety/collateral liquidity credit, less debt.

as of 2026-06-15

Fair value

$29.70

Upside

13.9%

Normalized EBITDA

700

Target enterprise value

3,360

Market

Current share price

$26.09USD/share

Segment EBITDA

Corporate and other EBITDA

-60$M

Other U.S. thermal EBITDA

80$M

Powder River Basin EBITDA

170$M

Seaborne met EBITDA

260$M

Seaborne thermal EBITDA

250$M

Valuation

Surety/collateral credit

100$M

Target EV/EBITDA

4.8

Sources

Q1 2026 segment adjusted EBITDA: seaborne thermal $48.5M, seaborne met $(7.0)M, PRB $23.7M, Other U.S. Thermal $37.8M. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-06-15)
FY2025 adjusted EBITDA was $454.9M, down from $871.7M in FY2024. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-06-15)
March 31, 2026 cash was $492.5M, restricted cash and collateral was $811.3M, debt was $335.2M, and common shares outstanding were 121.8M. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-06-15)
June 2026 surety arrangements are expected to reduce reclamation collateral requirements and eliminate a minimum liquidity covenant, but the cash release was not quantified in the snippets reviewed. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-06-15)

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