Peabody Energy EV/EBITDA valuation

Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-07-29
USD
Updated Aug 4, 2026 · Revised 1 time
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Peabody Energy EV/EBITDA valuation

EV/EBITDA valuation for Peabody Energy. The model values BTU on normalized segment adjusted EBITDA because coal earnings and GAAP net income are highly cyclical and currently distorted by Centurion commissioning costs, weather-driven U.S. thermal volume volatility, reclamation collateral changes, and convertible note refinancing. Base case gives credit for seaborne thermal strength and the completed surety cash release, but lowers normalized EBITDA and the target multiple versus the prior model until Centurion demonstrates consistent production through the second half of 2026.

as of 2026-07-29

Fair value
$24.72
Upside
-16.0%
Normalized EBITDA
615
Target enterprise value
2,829
Adjusted net cash
187

Market

$29.45USD/share
Latest BTU quote · updated Sep 8, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Segment EBITDA

-70$M
85$M
150$M
210$M
240$M

Valuation

4.6

Sources

  1. Q2 2026 net loss attributable to common stockholders was $(90.6)M, diluted EPS was $(0.74), and adjusted EBITDA was $24.0M. — prnewswire.com (accessed 2026-08-05)
  2. Q2 2026 segment adjusted EBITDA was seaborne thermal $52.1M, seaborne metallurgical $(17.0)M, Powder River Basin $(7.1)M, and Other U.S. Thermal $26.9M. — prnewswire.com (accessed 2026-08-05)
  3. June 30, 2026 cash was $526.3M, restricted cash and collateral was $459.8M, current debt was $13.5M, long-term debt was $325.5M, and Q2 weighted average diluted shares were 122.0M. — prnewswire.com (accessed 2026-08-05)
  4. Peabody reduced restricted cash and collateral by about $350M through revised U.S. and Australia surety arrangements, with management saying the returned collateral is fully available cash. — prnewswire.com (accessed 2026-08-05)
  5. Centurion is targeting 1.5-2.0M tons of sales in 2H 2026, including 0.5-0.7M tons in Q3; management said shield alignment is behind them but a limited fault zone remains a Q3 execution item. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-08-05)
  6. Q3 2026 outlook calls for seaborne thermal volume of 3.0M tons at $52-$57/ton costs, seaborne met volume of 1.9-2.1M tons at $130-$140/ton costs, PRB volume of 22M tons at about $11.75-$12.25/ton costs, and Other U.S. Thermal volume of 3.7M tons at $45-$49/ton costs. — prnewswire.com (accessed 2026-08-05)

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