Intel SOTP valuation with foundry inflection

Intel Corporation (INTC)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-07-29
USD
Updated Jul 28, 2026 · Revised 1 time
Download Excel

Intel SOTP valuation with foundry inflection

Forward sum-of-the-parts valuation for Intel after Q2 2026 results. The model values Intel Products as a normalized operating-income stream and values Intel Foundry as a discounted, probability-weighted 2030 EBITDA-based business after 18A/18A-P scale and an assumed 14A high-volume ramp in 2028. Fair value equals product value plus discounted foundry value plus other operating/investment value, less net debt, divided by diluted shares.

as of 2026-07-29

Fair value
$150.71
Upside/downside
72.7%
Intel Products value
$471.2
Intel Foundry present value
$301.2
Product operating income
$28.6
Foundry 2030 EBITDA
$28.0
Enterprise value
$789.4
Equity value
$768.6

Capitalization

5.10B shares
$20.8$B

Intel Foundry

$80.0$B
0.683
35.0%
17.5x
90%

Intel Products

16.5x
34.0%
$84.0$B

Market

$87.26$/share
Latest INTC quote · updated Aug 24, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Other value

$17.0$B

Sources

  1. Modeledge tracked valuation current price was $86.30 on 2026-07-29. (accessed 2026-07-29)
  2. Intel reported Q2 2026 revenue of $16.1B, GAAP EPS of $(2.16), non-GAAP EPS of $0.42, and Q3 2026 revenue guidance of $15.8B to $16.8B. — intc.com (accessed 2026-07-29)
  3. Intel's Q2 2026 segment table reported CCPG revenue of $8.877B, DCAI revenue of $6.262B, Total Intel Products revenue of $15.139B, Intel Products operating income of $4.817B, Intel Foundry revenue of $5.765B, and Intel Foundry operating loss of $2.089B. — intc.com (accessed 2026-07-29)
  4. Intel Foundry external customer revenue was $293M in Q2 2026, with substantially all Foundry revenue still supporting internal manufacturing for Intel Products. — intc.com (accessed 2026-07-29)
  5. At June 27, 2026, Intel reported $29.727B of cash and short-term investments, $50.537B of total debt, and 5.104B diluted weighted-average shares. — intc.com (accessed 2026-07-29)
  6. Intel acquired the Ireland SCIP minority interest for $14.2B in cash in Q2 2026 and funded the repurchase with existing cash, short-term investments, and $6.5B of senior notes. — intc.com (accessed 2026-07-29)
  7. Intel's Q2 2026 earnings presentation cited unprecedented AI compute demand, improving execution across nodes, an 18A ramp, 18A-P risk production, and commitment to 14A high-volume manufacturing in 2028. — d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net (accessed 2026-07-29)
  8. On the Q2 2026 earnings call, management said demand continued to outstrip supply, Q2 18A output exceeded target, Foundry output was up more than 50% quarter-over-quarter, and 2026 capex is now expected to exceed $20B with 2027 capex significantly higher. — finance.yahoo.com (accessed 2026-07-29)

Built with Modeledge MCP

Connect your MCP client to research filings and earnings calls, then build a living financial model like this one.

Connect your agent