Intel SOTP valuation with foundry inflection

Sources

1. October 8 Model Edge reference INTC price $107.08, refreshed 2026-10-08T15:00:49.077986-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this quote; intrinsic assumptions only change on evidence. (accessed 2026-10-08)
2. September 28 Modeledge reference INTC stock price $116.03, retrieved 2026-09-28T16:46:38.215659-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. Operating assumptions are unchanged except separately documented updates. (accessed 2026-09-28)
3. September 28: investigated the 5.67% decline. No new verified issuer guidance revision was found. Preserve current earnings framework and already included $20B common offering / $19.67B net proceeds; do not double count financing. Offering option and historical capital reconciliation remain open. — streetinsider.com (accessed 2026-09-28)
4. Market move alone does not change operating assumptions. Preserve the already included $20B offering and $19.67B net proceeds; overallotment verification remains open. (accessed 2026-09-14)
5. September 14 Modeledge reference INTC share price $97.19 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
6. September 10 Modeledge reference share price $100.32; market price alone is not used to revise operating forecasts. (accessed 2026-09-10)
7. September 10 mover/news review did not verify a new fundamental event justifying an intrinsic revision. The model already includes the $20B base common offering and $19.67B net proceeds; do not count it twice or assume the overallotment was exercised. (accessed 2026-09-10)
8. Intel sold 210,526,315 common shares at $95.00, generating about $19.67B of net proceeds before offering expenses; 5.25349B common shares were expected to be outstanding immediately after the base offering. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-12)
9. Modeledge tracked valuation current price was $86.30 on 2026-07-29. (accessed 2026-07-29)
10. Intel reported Q2 2026 revenue of $16.1B, GAAP EPS of $(2.16), non-GAAP EPS of $0.42, and Q3 2026 revenue guidance of $15.8B to $16.8B. — intc.com (accessed 2026-07-29)
11. Intel's Q2 2026 segment table reported CCPG revenue of $8.877B, DCAI revenue of $6.262B, Total Intel Products revenue of $15.139B, Intel Products operating income of $4.817B, Intel Foundry revenue of $5.765B, and Intel Foundry operating loss of $2.089B. — intc.com (accessed 2026-07-29)
12. Intel Foundry external customer revenue was $293M in Q2 2026, with substantially all Foundry revenue still supporting internal manufacturing for Intel Products. — intc.com (accessed 2026-07-29)
13. At June 27, 2026, Intel reported $29.727B of cash and short-term investments, $50.537B of total debt, and 5.104B diluted weighted-average shares. — intc.com (accessed 2026-07-29)
14. Intel acquired the Ireland SCIP minority interest for $14.2B in cash in Q2 2026 and funded the repurchase with existing cash, short-term investments, and $6.5B of senior notes. — intc.com (accessed 2026-07-29)
15. Intel's Q2 2026 earnings presentation cited unprecedented AI compute demand, improving execution across nodes, an 18A ramp, 18A-P risk production, and commitment to 14A high-volume manufacturing in 2028. — d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net (accessed 2026-07-29)
16. On the Q2 2026 earnings call, management said demand continued to outstrip supply, Q2 18A output exceeded target, Foundry output was up more than 50% quarter-over-quarter, and 2026 capex is now expected to exceed $20B with 2027 capex significantly higher. — finance.yahoo.com (accessed 2026-07-29)