LyondellBasell through-cycle EV/EBITDA valuation

LyondellBasell Industries (LYB)
By@grokius
Assumptions as of 2026-08-25
USD
Updated Aug 25, 2026 · Revised 1 time
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LyondellBasell through-cycle EV/EBITDA valuation

Cyclical olefins and polyolefins valuation. Capitalize a through-cycle adjusted EBITDA at a chemicals EV/EBITDA multiple, subtract net debt, and divide by diluted shares. Do not annualize Q2 2026's $2.13B adjusted EBITDA: that print was a Middle East supply-shock spike (23% margin, record $0.30/lb April PE hike) that began reversing in June, with Q3 operating rates guided down for Clinton/Lake Charles turnarounds. This is not an INTC/MU FCF-yield clone and not a bank P/TBV: 2025 FCF collapsed to $0.38B and LYB's earnings power is spread- and utilization-driven. Both public Modeledge LYB models already use through-cycle EV/EBITDA; this notebook keeps that basis, uses a live current_price input, and does not treat unobservable spread indices as if they were contract prices.

as of 2026-08-25

Fair value per share
$65.73
Upside vs current price
5.3%
Through-cycle adjusted EBITDA
$4.50
Implied through-cycle FCF
$2.48
Implied enterprise value
$31.50
Implied equity value
$21.23
Net debt
$10.27
Current EV / through-cycle EBITDA
6.8

Balance sheet

2.64$B
323.0M shares
12.91$B

Cash conversion

55.0%

Earnings power

2.742$B
4.50$B
2.127$B

Market

62.42USD
Latest LYB quote · updated Aug 26, 2026 12:36 PM MDT

Valuation

7.0

Through-cycle EV/EBITDA bridge

FY2026E
Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA (do not annualize)$2.13
Q2 annualized (illustrative only)$8.51
H1 2026 annualized (includes spike)$5.48
Through-cycle adjusted EBITDA$4.50
EV / EBITDA multiple7.0
Implied enterprise value$31.50
Gross debt$12.91
Cash and liquid investments$2.64
Net debt$10.27
Implied equity value$21.23
Implied through-cycle FCF$2.48
Fair value per share$65.73

Sources

  1. Q2 2026 sales $9.177B, net income $559M, diluted EPS $1.71 / $4.30 excluding identified items, GAAP EBITDA $1.252B, adjusted EBITDA $2.127B, H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA $2.742B, 323M diluted shares. Cash $2.630B and liquid investments $2.640B, liquidity $7.090B. Q3 operating-rate guide 85% Americas O&P, 70% EAI, 85% I&D. Cash Improvement Plan targeting $500M incremental cash by YE2026. European four-asset sale completed. — sec.gov
  2. June 30, 2026 10-Q: long-term debt $11.215B, current maturities $1.461B, short-term debt $0.234B (gross debt $12.910B); cash and cash equivalents plus restricted cash $2.640B; 323,004,034 ordinary shares outstanding; Q2 operating cash flow $0.752B company-reported in the earnings release, 10-Q H1 operating cash $0.483B after working-capital build and $310M cash contribution to disposed European businesses. — sec.gov
  3. Q2 2026 call: 23% EBITDA margin from Middle East supply disruption; market normalization a long process beyond 2026; O&P Americas EBITDA $1.3B at ~90% rates (crackers ~95%); June PE contracts -$0.15/lb after April +$0.30/lb; Clinton ~70-day turnaround and Lake Charles outage cut Q3 Americas rates to ~85%; LTM cash conversion 80%; 2026 CapEx plan $1.2B; $224M Q2 dividend, no buybacks. — modeledge.ai
  4. XBRL: FY2025 revenue $30.153B, FY2024 $33.394B, FY2023 $33.336B; FY2025 FCF $0.384B vs FY2024 $1.980B and FY2023 $3.411B; FY2025 capex $1.878B. 10-K segment EBITDA 2025 $1.065B / 2024 $3.516B / 2023 $4.130B. — sec.gov
  5. Street Hold, average target $69.53 (low BofA $56, high $95). Post-Q2: RBC $72 Buy, Morgan Stanley $72 Buy, Citi $72 Buy, Goldman $63 Sell, BofA $56 Sell (Aug 4-5, 2026). — stockanalysis.com
  6. May 1, 2026 close of four European olefins and polyolefins sites (Berre, Münchsmünster, Carrington, Tarragona) to AEQUITA, now operated as Velogy. — investors.lyondellbasell.com

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