MongoDB (MDB) - Graham-Dodd SaaS growth-multiplier valuation

Assumptions as of 2026-09-01

USD

Updated Sep 1, 2026 · Revised 1 time

as of 2026-09-01

Max justified price per share

$161.66

Upside vs market

-62.8%

Decayed 7-yr CAGR

14.3%

Justified multiple of normalized FCF

20.02

Relative growth decay per year

15.0%

Discount rate

10.0%

Entry revenue growth (FY2027E YoY, guided)

22.2%

Mature FCF margin (AFTER charging SBC in full)

18.0%

Net cash incl. marketable securities ($M)

2,411$M

Market price ($)

$434.21

FY2027E revenue ($M, guidance midpoint)

3,010$M

Diluted shares (M)

82.0M

	FY2027E
FY2027E revenue	3,010
Decayed 7-yr CAGR	14.3%
Yr-7 revenue multiple	2.54
Terminal multiple	15.33
Justified mult. of normalized FCF	20.02
Normalized FCF	542
Enterprise value	10,845
+ Net cash	2,411
= Equity value	13,256
Implied EV/revenue	3.60

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