MongoDB (MDB) - Graham-Dodd SaaS growth-multiplier valuation

Assumptions as of 2026-07-19

USD

Updated Jul 19, 2026

as of 2026-07-19

Max justified price per share

$129.83

Upside vs market

-58.4%

Decayed 7-yr CAGR

14.6%

Justified multiple of normalized FCF

20.60

Relative growth decay per year

15.0%

Discount rate

10.0%

Entry revenue growth (FY2026 YoY)

22.8%

Mature FCF margin (AFTER charging SBC in full)

16.0%

Net cash incl. marketable securities ($M)

2,427$M

Market price ($)

$312.33

FY2026 revenue ($M)

2,464$M

Diluted shares (M)

81.2M

	FY2026A
FY2026 revenue	2,464
Decayed 7-yr CAGR	14.6%
Yr-7 revenue multiple	2.60
Terminal multiple	15.42
Justified mult. of normalized FCF	20.60
Normalized FCF	394
Enterprise value	8,121
+ Net cash	2,427
= Equity value	10,548
Implied EV/revenue	3.30

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