Marvell forward normalized EPS valuation

Sources

1. October 6 Model Edge reference MRVL quote $287.01, refreshed 2026-10-06T15:02:52.611701-06:00. Price changes refresh market-relative outputs; evidence-supported valuation changes are separately described. (accessed 2026-10-06)
2. October 6 Investor Day raises FY2028 revenue outlook $18B to $20B and FY2029 custom revenue target from more than $10B to more than $12B. New FY2031 revenue target is $70B-$90B, gross margin 56%-59%, operating margin 44%-46%, approximately 15% tax and more than $30 non-GAAP EPS at the revenue midpoint. FY2031 corresponds to calendar 2030; these are forward targets, not realized earnings or FY2027 EPS guidance. Keep the existing $4.40 annualized Q3 EPS anchor, 50x P/E, 921M guided shares and separate contingent customer-warrant treatment; do not capitalize FY2031 EPS at today's near-term multiple or double-add programs already included in targets. Two ownership filings describe the same planned 10,000-share COO sale, not a new award. Price rose 5.81% to $287.01; fair value stays $219.192436 pending a consistent earnings-horizon bridge. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-06)
3. Additional supporting source for the October 6 review; see the dated evidence note. — investor.marvell.com (accessed 2026-10-06)
4. Additional supporting source for the October 6 review; see the dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-06)
5. September 29 Modeledge reference MRVL stock price $263.28, retrieved 2026-09-29T15:15:07.791564-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. No operating or intrinsic valuation inputs changed in this review. (accessed 2026-09-29)
6. September 29: investigated the 4.52% rise. Citi's reiterated Buy/$275 target and investor-day anticipation are reported commentary, not new issuer EPS guidance. No new indexed filing or call since the completed September 25 window. Preserve the $4.40 annualized Q3 EPS anchor, 50x base and existing customer-warrant treatment. October 6 Investor Day remains the quantified-guidance checkpoint. — streetinsider.com (accessed 2026-09-29)
7. September 25, 2026 Model Edge reference MRVL price $261.935, refreshed 2026-09-25T15:02:46.845248-06:00. This changes market-relative outputs; intrinsic changes are separately sourced. (accessed 2026-09-26)
8. Dividend 8-K declares $0.06 per share to October 9 holders, payable October 29; existing normalized EPS and warrant assumptions remain unchanged. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-26)
9. September 14 company-specific filing/press discovery and market-news checks did not establish a new operating forecast or capital-structure change. Preserve the existing intrinsic assumptions; continue the model's unresolved refresh checklist. (accessed 2026-09-14)
10. September 14 Modeledge reference MRVL share price $218.82 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
11. Marvell reported Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $2.418 billion, operating income of $339 million, and 893.3 million diluted shares including preferred conversion. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-18)
12. Q3 non-GAAP EPS guidance $1.05-$1.15 on approximately 921M diluted shares; FY28 revenue outlook raised to $18B. Custom revenue through FY28 already includes programs under the new hyperscaler agreement. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-07)
13. August 18 warrant covers up to 58,970,907 shares at $206.58 through August 2033, with revenue and time-based vesting. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-07)
14. September 8, 2026 provider reference quote refreshed to $225.41; price-dependent outputs updated. No new indexed company activity since the September 7 review; existing intrinsic assumptions retained. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-08)
15. September 9 Citi conference reiterated $12B FY2027 and $18B FY2028 revenue expectations and operating-margin progression. Further long-term ranges are deferred to October 6 Investor Day; no new EPS guidance or warrant issuance replaces the existing $4.40 normalized EPS and customer-warrant model. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-09)