Conagra forward adjusted EPS valuation

Sources

1. September 30 Modeledge reference CAG price $13.465, refreshed 2026-09-30T15:27:36.600448-06:00. This quote refresh changes market-relative outputs; any intrinsic effects are separately explained. For USAU only, the existing financing-price formula mechanically links valuation to price. (accessed 2026-09-30)
2. September 30 Q1 FY2027 review: sales $2.5959B, organic sales -1.1% and volume -2.1%; adjusted EPS $0.41 and operating margin 11.5%. FY2027 EPS $1.40-$1.50 and operating-margin 10%-10.5% guidance are reaffirmed, so preserve $1.45 EPS and 8x P/E ($11.60). Q1 profit includes $10M incentive-compensation benefit, $4M tariff refunds and $50M Ardent Mills earnings; do not annualize. FCF was -$128M, net debt about $7.4B and leverage 3.99x; inflation risks remain. Diluted share diagnostic updates 480.2M to reported 480.0M. Q1 dividend payment of $0.35 does not reverse the previously announced lower annual dividend run rate. Stock move -4.71% investigated against the actual release and both call sections; market causation is not proven. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-30)
3. Additional supporting source for the September 30 CAG review; see the first dated source note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-30)
4. September 28 Modeledge reference CAG stock price $14.16, retrieved 2026-09-28T16:46:39.191319-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. Operating assumptions are unchanged except separately documented updates. (accessed 2026-09-28)
5. September 28 AGM 8-K: director election, advisory compensation vote and shareholder preferred-stock policy proposal; no actual preferred issuance or new financial guidance. Preserve existing EPS/multiple valuation and capital assumptions. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-28)
6. July 15 FY2026 results guided FY2027 adjusted EPS to $1.40-$1.50; September 23 AGM discussed the turnaround without replacing that range. Correct unsupported $2.10 forward EPS to $1.45 midpoint, retain 8x base P/E. Preserve prior absolute EPS scenario gaps: bear $1.15 at 6x and bull $1.70 at 10x are analyst sensitivities, not guidance. Update Q4 adjusted weighted diluted shares to 480.2M per release footnote, not loss-EPS basic count of 479.2M. Annual dividend reset to $0.70 in July. This is a catch-up correction; Q1 results due September 30 remain a catalyst. Historical review incomplete. — conagrabrands.com (accessed 2026-09-23)
7. September 23 reference CAG price $14.78; quote timestamp 2026-09-23T15:03:25.984014-06:00. Market price alone does not change operating value. (accessed 2026-09-23)
8. Conagra reported fiscal 2026 net sales of $11.28 billion; GAAP results included $2.38 billion of goodwill impairment charges and $547 million of other intangible impairment charges. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-18)