Crocs Hawk P/E valuation

Crocs Inc. (CROX)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-09-15
USD
Updated Sep 15, 2026 · Revised 2 times
Download Excel

Crocs Hawk P/E valuation

Forward P/E valuation for Crocs, Inc. refreshed after Q2 2026 results. The base case values CROX at 11.5x FY2026 non-GAAP EPS of $13.85, the midpoint of management's raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $13.70 to $14.00. The bear case assumes earnings near the low end of guidance and a lower multiple because HEYDUDE and wholesale remain uneven; the bull case assumes stronger execution, buyback support, and modest multiple re-rating. Current price is the Modeledge price service value observed on 2026-09-15.

as of 2026-09-15

Fair value
$159.28
Upside/downside
36.2%
Current forward P/E
8.4
Normalized earnings
$687.3
FCF yield at fair value
8.3%
EPS vs guidance midpoint
0.0%

Earnings

$13.85$/share

Market

$116.90$/share
Latest CROX quote · updated Oct 12, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Valuation

11.5x

Fair value sensitivity

FY2026 non-GAAP EPS8.5 x10.0 x11.5 x13.0 x14.5 x
$13.20 $/share$112.20$132.00$151.80$171.60$191.40
$13.50 $/share$114.75$135.00$155.25$175.50$195.75
$13.85 $/share$117.73$138.50$159.28$180.05$200.83
$14.00 $/share$119.00$140.00$161.00$182.00$203.00
$14.25 $/share$121.13$142.50$163.88$185.25$206.63

Sources

  1. September 15 Piper Sandler conference discussed innovation, sandals and HEYDUDE improvement without new earnings guidance. Preserve $13.85 FY2026 adjusted EPS and 11.5x base P/E; future repurchases are excluded from management guidance. Reviewed both window Forms 4: director Smach bought 4,000 shares September 10; CEO Rees sold previously held shares August 7/10. Neither is a company repurchase or a reason to change EPS. Update quote to $111.48. All three indexed window items reviewed. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-15)
  2. September 15 reference CROX share price $111.48; provider quote update 2026-09-15T15:01:38.848835-06:00. Stock-price movement alone does not change the operating forecast. (accessed 2026-09-15)
  3. The unused modeledge_market_cap_service_m constant remains the historical August 10 provider reading; current model equity value uses current_price times the disclosed Q2 diluted-share proxy. (accessed 2026-09-15)
  4. Q2 2026 revenue was $1.179B, adjusted gross margin was 60.0%, adjusted operating margin was 25.1%, and adjusted diluted EPS was $4.55. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-10)
  5. FY2026 guidance was raised to revenue growth of 1% to 2%, adjusted operating margin modestly above 22.3%, and adjusted diluted EPS of $13.70 to $14.00. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-10)
  6. Q2 2026 capital allocation included $31M of debt repayment and repurchases of about 2.3M shares for $251M at an average price of $106.87; quarter-end buyback authorization was upsized to about $2.0B. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-10)
  7. The Q2 2026 10-Q reports six-month revenue of $2.101B, diluted weighted-average shares of 50.164M for the first half, and 48.1M shares outstanding at June 30, 2026. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-10)
  8. FY2025 revenue was $4.041B and FY2025 free cash flow was $659.2M. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-10)
  9. Modeledge price service showed CROX at $138.19 as of 2026-08-10 20:00:02Z and market capitalization of about $6.626B. (accessed 2026-08-10)

Built with Modeledge MCP

Connect your MCP client to research filings and earnings calls, then build a living financial model like this one.

Connect your agent