ARLP valuation using a 2026E EV/EBITDA method refreshed for Q2 2026. Base assumptions anchor to management's updated 2026 coal volume, realized price, cost, royalty, capex, interest, and tax guidance; Q2 2026 balance sheet data; and the July 1, 2026 AllDale III & IV oil and gas royalty acquisition. Fair value is enterprise value less estimated pro forma debt plus estimated pro forma cash and digital assets, divided by period-end common units. The method keeps a discounted coal/royalty multiple for coal terminal and regulatory risk while giving credit for a nearly fully committed 2026 coal book, improving second-half coal operating cadence, and higher oil and gas royalty scale. The bull case is intentionally capped to reflect a narrower expected trading range rather than a broad multiple re-rating.
as of 2026-07-31
| Target EV/EBITDA multiple | 52.00 $/ton | 54.00 $/ton | 55.00 $/ton | 56.00 $/ton | 58.00 $/ton |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.50 x | $17.40 | $19.81 | $21.02 | $22.22 | $24.64 |
| 5.00 x | $19.89 | $22.57 | $23.91 | $25.25 | $27.93 |
| 5.75 x | $23.63 | $26.71 | $28.25 | $29.79 | $32.88 |
| 6.00 x | $24.87 | $28.09 | $29.70 | $31.31 | $34.52 |
| 6.50 x | $27.36 | $30.85 | $32.59 | $34.34 | $37.82 |
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