Warrior Met Coal normalized EV/EBITDA valuation

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-08-09
USD
Updated Aug 9, 2026 · Revised 2 times
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Warrior Met Coal normalized EV/EBITDA valuation

Normalized EV/EBITDA valuation updated for Q2 2026. Volume remains at the midpoint of raised guidance, normalized price remains $150 per ton, and cash cost remains $98 as Blue Creek ramps. The unchanged 5.5x multiple recognizes improved execution while preserving a commodity-cycle discount.

as of 2026-08-09

Normalized adjusted EBITDA
$657
Enterprise value
$3,614
Equity value
$3,667
Fair value per share
$69.44
Upside/downside to current price
-24.5%

Operating assumptions

$98
$35$M
$150
13.5million short tons
$80$M

Valuation assumptions

5.5

EV/EBITDA valuation bridge

FY2026E
Sales volume13.5
Realized price per ton$150
Cash cost per ton$98
Cash margin$702
SG&A$80
Other add-backs$35
Adjusted EBITDA$657
EV / EBITDA multiple5.5
Enterprise value$3,614
Net debt-$53
Equity value$3,667
Fair value per share$69.44

Sources

  1. Q2 sales volume reached a record 3.7M tons, realized price was $137.82 per ton, cash cost was $92.53, adjusted EBITDA was $156.9M, and full-year volume guidance increased to 13M-14M tons. — investors.warriormetcoal.com (accessed 2026-08-09)
  2. The Q2 2026 balance sheet reported $302.346M of cash and cash equivalents, $20.152M of short-term investments, 52.802M shares outstanding, $154.591M of long-term debt, $81.241M of finance lease liabilities, and $33.489M of federal coal lease obligations. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-09)
  3. Management said Blue Creek was operational, development spending was complete, full-year Blue Creek sales volume increased to 5M short tons, and about 90% of that volume was already contracted. — investors.warriormetcoal.com (accessed 2026-08-09)

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