NVIDIA forward normalized EPS valuation

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-08-26
USD
Updated Aug 26, 2026 · Revised 2 times
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NVIDIA forward normalized EPS valuation

Forward non-GAAP earnings valuation for NVIDIA after Q2 FY27. The base annualizes the Q3 FY27 guided run-rate: $108B revenue, 74% non-GAAP gross margin, about $9B non-GAAP operating expense, a 17% midpoint tax rate, and 24.285B diluted shares. The outlook assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China. PORTS-Pike RVGs remain a contingent P/E haircut, not an earnings reduction.

as of 2026-08-26

Fair value per share
$271.32
Upside/downside
19.8%
Forward normalized net income
$235.3k
Implied equity value
$6.6M
Applied forward P/E
28.0

Capitalization

24,285.00M shares

Forecast

9.69$/share

Market

226.44$/share
Latest NVDA quote · updated Aug 27, 2026 9:03 AM MDT

Valuation

0.00x
28.00x

Sources

  1. Q2 FY27 revenue was $96.221B and non-GAAP EPS was $2.22 on 24.285B diluted shares. Q3 FY27 guidance is $108B revenue, 74% non-GAAP gross margin, about $9B non-GAAP operating expense, and a 16%-18% tax rate, assuming no China Data Center compute revenue. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-26)
  2. Q1 FY27 revenue $81.615B (vs Q4 guide $78.0B ±2%), GAAP/nGAAP GM 74.9%/75.0%, GAAP EPS $2.39 vs nGAAP EPS $1.87 on 24,391M diluted shares; nGAAP NI $45.548B. Q2 FY27 guide $91.0B ±2%, GAAP/nGAAP GM 74.9%/75.0% ±50bp, nGAAP opex ~$8.3B, zero China Data Center compute. nGAAP includes SBC beginning Q1 FY27. GAAP other income includes $15.936B equity-security gains. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-25)
  3. Q4 FY26 outlook for Q1 FY27 revenue was $78.0B ±2% with zero China Data Center compute, providing the beat comparison for Q1 actual $81.615B. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-25)
  4. Q1 FY27 10-Q: diluted weighted-average shares 24,391 million; common shares outstanding 24,221 million at April 26, 2026 and 24.2 billion at May 15, 2026. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-25)
  5. June 18, 2026 notes offering completed: $3.5B 4.250% 2028 + $3.5B 4.350% 2029 + $4.0B 4.500% 2031 + $3.5B 4.750% 2033 + $4.0B 4.950% 2036 + $3.0B 5.550% 2046 + $3.5B 5.625% 2056 = $25.0B aggregate principal (Modeledge 8-K title says $21B; tranche math is $25.0B). — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-25)
  6. Aug 17, 2026 8-K: residual value guaranties on ~4.25 GW IT load at PORTS-Pike (option ~3.8 GW more); NVIDIA aggregate payment obligation cumulatively capped at $105B for the initial commitment; ready-for-service expected beginning 2028; OpenAI is tenant; NVIDIA pays on OpenAI insolvency or payment default; OpenAI reimburses/indemnifies NVIDIA. Form of agreements to be filed with the Q2 FY27 10-Q. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-25)
  7. Aug 17, 2026 press release: NVIDIA invests $1.5B in SB Energy now; exclusive AI compute at PORTS-Pike; OpenAI customer for 8 IT-GW; campus online in phases beginning 2028. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-25)
  8. Jul 2, 2026 8-K: Nicholas Parker appointed EVP Worldwide Field Operations, employment anticipated to commence August 24, 2026; Ajay Puri retiring from the role and remaining as senior advisor. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-25)

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