Obsidian Energy — 2027 Sustainable FCF Valuation

Sources

1. October 13 Model Edge regular-session reference OBE price $11.77, refreshed 2026-10-13T15:02:12.455932-06:00. Price refresh changes market-relative outputs; separate evidence/relative-method changes are described below. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-13)
2. Primary issuer news checked; no verified new operating guidance for today. — obsidianenergy.com (accessed 2026-10-13)
3. September 25, 2026 Model Edge reference OBE price $10.69, refreshed 2026-09-25T15:02:46.064345-06:00. This changes market-relative outputs; intrinsic changes are separately sourced. (accessed 2026-09-26)
4. The September 23 filing includes amendments effective August 4; no new cash draw or operating guidance is established by the agreement alone. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-26)
5. September 14 guidance lowers the 2026 production midpoint from 30,000 to 29,000 boe/d and FFO from C$310M to C$305M. Use 15% as a conservative model floor for the company's >15% 2027 production-growth target, replacing 22%; this remains an FFO scaling judgment, not company FFO guidance. Re-anchor WTI to $80, guided weighted shares to 66.6M and CAD/USD to 1.39. Preserve $185M sustaining capex, 7x base multiple and scenario commodity prices. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-14)
6. September 14 Modeledge reference OBE share price $12.49 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
7. 2026 guidance, FFO sensitivity, and 2027 growth target — obsidianenergy.com
8. Q2 2026 financial results and hedge schedule — obsidianenergy.com