Royal Gold Forward EV EBITDA Hawk Valuation

Sources

1. October 20 Model Edge regular-session reference $238.78, refreshed 2026-10-20T15:09:46.455751-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time or an asserted official closing print; financial anchors retain their stated dates. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-20)
2. October 20 preliminary Q3 release reports $318.3M stream sales and $143-149M royalty sales, $250M debt repaid leaving $150M revolver balance, and 190,045 shares repurchased/cancelled for $49M. No matched quarter-end cash or full diluted share register was supplied. Do not subtract debt repayment from net debt or selectively adjust shares without the cash bridge. Preserve normalized metals, 14x, $270M net debt and 84.85M shares pending November 4 full results. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-20)
3. October 15 Model Edge regular-session RGLD reference $233, refreshed 2026-10-15T15:04:35.506123-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time. Scope and separate financial-anchor changes are described in refresh context. (accessed 2026-10-15)
4. October 15 full roadshow transcript reiterates growth and 83% margin and says $1B cumulative debt repaid and $30M buybacks. It does not supply matched current cash/net debt/shares. Keep normalized metals, 14x, $270M net debt and 84.85M shares. Hod Maden arithmetic is inconsistent: 15% of $900M is $135M, not stated $165M; $70M spent plus $65M remaining equals $135M. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-15)
5. October 7 Model Edge reference RGLD quote $227.89, refreshed 2026-10-07T15:03:00.592656-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this price; valuation changes are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-07)
6. October 7 entire conference-call transcript reviewed. Management reiterates about17%growth overfiveyears after~30%FY26 growth,83%EBITDAmargin,~$900Mdebt repayment and already completed~$200Mnoncore equity sales. Warintza150/200Mfunded; MARA gold-stream option covers20%, not all project gold; development projects do not establish new near-term modeled cash flow. Preserve normalized gold4500/silver73/copper5.75,83%margin,14x,84.85Mshares and$270Mnetdebt, value$242.159458. Do not subtract debt repayment without cash or turn$500Mbuyback authorization into completed retirements. CEO Form4 is existing-stock sale, not issuance. Transcript gives inconsistent MARA/Fourmile feasibility timing; no construction-timeline revision based on contradictory remarks. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-07)
7. Additional supporting source for October 7 review; see the dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-07)
8. September 28 Modeledge reference RGLD stock price $240.32, retrieved 2026-09-28T16:46:37.222593-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. Operating assumptions are unchanged except separately documented updates. (accessed 2026-09-28)
9. September 28 conference fully read. Management discusses portfolio diversification, reserve life, ramp-ups and monetizations; prospective Entree/Hod Maden disposals are not closed proceeds. Debt repayments cannot reduce net debt without reconciling cash. Preserve normalized gold $4,500, silver $73, copper $5.75, 83% margin, 14x, 84.85M shares and $270M net debt despite the 4.82% decline. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-28)
10. September 10 Modeledge reference share price $253.98; market price alone is not used to revise operating forecasts. (accessed 2026-09-10)
11. September 10 Jefferies conference discussed portfolio diversification, Hod Maden construction and Antamina NPI strength without a new quantified production/price forecast or complete live balance sheet. Retain normalized commodity assumptions; debt repayment financed from cash does not itself reduce net debt. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-10)
12. Q2 2026 revenue was $450.5 million, sales volume was 100,000 GEOs, adjusted EBITDA margin was 83%, operating cash flow was $335.2 million, gold contributed 76% of revenue, and 2026 gold and silver guidance remained on track while copper and other metals were trending around or above the high end of their ranges. — storage.googleapis.com (accessed 2026-08-11)
13. The Q2 2026 10-Q reported $182.5 million of cash, $400.0 million of debt before a July 15 repayment, 84.673 million shares outstanding at June 30, and 84.728 million shares outstanding as of July 29, 2026. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-11)
14. On the Q2 2026 call, management described a diversified portfolio with no asset above 13% of revenue, reaffirmed balanced H2 expectations, noted copper and other-metals upside is partly driven by Antamina NPI volatility, and said further share repurchases depend on competing capital-allocation priorities. — royalgold.com (accessed 2026-08-11)