Bloom Energy discounted 2028 enterprise valuation

Bloom Energy Corporation (BE)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-10-08
USD
Updated Oct 8, 2026 · Revised 8 times
Download Excel

Bloom Energy discounted 2028 enterprise valuation

Scenario valuation of Bloom Energy based on FY2028 revenue and normalized EBITDA, discounted to August 5, 2026. The model blends EV/revenue and EV/EBITDA to reflect Bloom's rapid growth while requiring operating-profit conversion. Normalized EBITDA is intended to include recurring stock compensation rather than relying on management's adjusted EBITDA. The Brookfield framework supports the demand case but is not treated as contracted revenue. Fully diluted shares are used to capture convertible and equity compensation dilution.

as of 2026-10-08

Fair value
$128.42
Upside/downside
-54.2%
FY2028 revenue
$7.1k
FY2028 normalized EBITDA
$1.5k
FY2028 blended enterprise value
$53.9k
Present enterprise value
$42.0k
Implied equity value
$41.7k
Market-implied FY2028 EV/revenue
16.6
Market-implied FY2028 EV/EBITDA
78.9

Capital structure

325.00M shares
$250.0$M

Market

280.50$/share
Latest BE quote · updated Oct 9, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Operating forecast

40.0%
25.0%
21.0%
$4.1k$M

Valuation

11.0%
32.00x
8.50x

Sources

  1. October 8 Model Edge reference BE price $272.82, refreshed 2026-10-08T15:00:48.96652-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this quote; intrinsic assumptions only change on evidence. (accessed 2026-10-08)
  2. September 29 Modeledge reference BE stock price $291.25, retrieved 2026-09-29T15:15:02.504739-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. No operating or intrinsic valuation inputs changed in this review. (accessed 2026-09-29)
  3. September 29: BE rose 10.80% to the $291.25 reference quote. The City of Fremont confirms a 158,000-square-foot facility expansion; RBC's reiterated Outperform/$335 target and Oracle reassurances are reported market catalysts, not new quantified revenue guidance. Sources differ on acquisition versus lease, so no capital commitment is invented. Preserve $4,050M FY2026 revenue, 40%/25% forward growth and current valuation multiples; signed economics, permitting and Oracle milestones remain open. — es.linkedin.com (accessed 2026-09-29)
  4. Additional supporting record for the September 29 BE review. — ca.investing.com (accessed 2026-09-29)
  5. September 28 Modeledge reference BE stock price $262.87, retrieved 2026-09-28T16:46:37.70145-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. Operating assumptions are unchanged except separately documented updates. (accessed 2026-09-28)
  6. September 28: investigated the 8.95% decline. Project Jupiter force-majeure reporting dates to September 24; Oracle and Bloom subsequently said the planned project and 2.4GW supply commitment remain intact. A September 28 'halt' headline does not establish cancellation or quantify Bloom revenue loss. Preserve the live $4,050M FY2026 revenue / 40% and 25% forward-growth framework; carry delivery, permitting and gas-supply risk. — wealthprofessional.ca (accessed 2026-09-28)
  7. Additional supporting record for the September 28 BE review. — x.com (accessed 2026-09-28)
  8. September 25, 2026 Model Edge reference BE price $288.7, refreshed 2026-09-25T15:02:45.676193-06:00. This changes market-relative outputs; intrinsic changes are separately sourced. (accessed 2026-09-26)
  9. The Army announced conditional Indelible-Bloom lease awards; no quantified Bloom purchase commitment was disclosed. — army.mil (accessed 2026-09-26)
  10. September 14 company-specific filing/press discovery and market-news checks did not establish a new operating forecast or capital-structure change. Preserve the existing intrinsic assumptions; continue the model's unresolved refresh checklist. (accessed 2026-09-14)
  11. September 14 Modeledge reference BE share price $257.05 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
  12. September 11 Modeledge reference share price $275.75. The share quote changes market-relative outputs, not operating forecasts or intrinsic fair value. (accessed 2026-09-11)
  13. Oracle's September 10 Q1 call confirms planned Bloom fuel cells at its New Mexico data center, with the air permit still in process. Oracle retained FY2027 gross capex $90B-$95B and net-cash capex at or below $70B; the New Mexico/Wisconsin sites do not alter Oracle's existing FY2027 guidance. This supports demand visibility but provides no new Bloom contract value, revenue or dilution terms. Investigated BE +6.68%; retain Bloom's $4.05B FY2026 revenue and discounted FY2028 valuation. The source supports a possible backdrop, not proof of price causation. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-11)
  14. Bloom reported Q2 2026 revenue of $1.065B, 34.3% non-GAAP gross margin, $239.6M non-GAAP operating income, $253.4M adjusted EBITDA, $226.4M operating cash flow, and raised FY2026 guidance to $3.9B-$4.2B revenue, about 34% non-GAAP gross margin, $800M-$900M non-GAAP operating income, and $2.55-$2.85 non-GAAP EPS. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-05)
  15. At June 30, 2026 Bloom reported $2.667B cash and cash equivalents, $2.475B recourse debt, $206.5M financing obligations, 293.4M common shares outstanding, and 323.3M Q2 diluted weighted-average shares. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-05)
  16. The Q2 2026 Form 10-Q/A disclosed $442.4M of unsatisfied product and installation performance obligations and $51.7M of deferred service-contract obligations, with the product and installation amount expected to be recognized within 1-2 years. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-05)
  17. Management said on the Q2 call that all major U.S. hyperscalers and over a dozen U.S. neoclouds, AI labs, and colocation operators have validated Bloom's power solutions, that backlog is growing faster than revenue, and that FY2026 guidance is not dependent on a single project. — seekingalpha.com (accessed 2026-08-05)
  18. Brookfield expanded its prospective financing framework for qualifying Bloom-powered AI infrastructure projects from $5B to $25B; the framework is not modeled as backlog or guaranteed revenue. — investor.bloomenergy.com (accessed 2026-08-05)
  19. BE reference share price was $236.88 at 19:51 UTC on August 5, 2026. — finance.yahoo.com (accessed 2026-08-05)
  20. S&P Dow Jones Indices announced September 4 that Bloom Energy will join the S&P 500 before the September 21 open. Index inclusion changes benchmark demand but is not incremental earnings or contracted revenue. — press.spglobal.com (accessed 2026-09-08)

Built with Modeledge MCP

Connect your MCP client to research filings and earnings calls, then build a living financial model like this one.

Connect your agent