Nexa Resources Boliden-linked FCF yield valuation

Nexa Resources SA (NEXA)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-09-14
USD
Updated Sep 14, 2026 · Revised 4 times
Download Excel

Nexa Resources Boliden-linked FCF yield valuation

as of 2026-09-14

Fair value per share
$18.43
Boliden-linked Nexa value per share
$13.48
Upside / downside vs Boliden-linked value
36.8%
Attributable normalized FCF ($M)
$488
Implied equity value ($M)
$2441
FY2027E FCF ($M)
$744
7.0%
30.0%
525.60SEK/share
25.0%
132.4
$62.50
$5.00
20.0%
9.7490SEK per USD
$3600
FY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
Average gross debt ($M)
Capex ($M)
Cerro Lindo silver production (Moz)
Cerro Lindo streamed silver share
D&A ($M)
Mine cash costs ($M)
Mine other byproduct revenue ($M)
Mining zinc production (kt contained)
Silver production (Moz)
Smelting byproduct and premium revenue ($M)
Smelting EBITDA margin
Smelting zinc metal and oxide sales (kt)
Working capital release / (use) ($M)

FCF bridge ($M)

FY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
Zinc revenue$1188$1278$1289
Silver revenue$593$641$578
Other mine byproducts$500$525$525
= Mine revenue$2281$2444$2391
- Mine cash costs$1115$1155$1165
= Mine EBITDA$1166$1289$1226
+ Smelting EBITDA addition$219$262$262
= Total EBITDA$1384$1551$1489
- D&A$335$330$330
= EBIT$1049$1221$1159
- Interest expense$130$123$118
- Cash tax$276$329$312
+ D&A$335$330$330
+ Working capital release / (use)-$150$50$0
= CFO before capex$829$1149$1059
- Capex$381$405$390
= FCF$448$744$669
= Attributable FCF$336$558$502

Operating drivers

FY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
Zinc price ($/t)$3600$3600$3600
Silver price ($/oz)$62.50$62.50$62.50
Mining zinc production (kt)330.0355.0358.0
Market silver exposure (Moz)9.410.29.2
Cerro Lindo streamed silver share35.0%25.0%25.0%
Smelting EBITDA margin8.5%10.0%10.0%
NCI / minority FCF share25.0%25.0%25.0%
Cash interest rate7.0%7.0%7.0%
Target equity FCF yield20.0%20.0%20.0%

Sources

  1. September 14 market references: BOL.ST SEK525.6 at 15:29:43Z and USDSEK9.74902 at 21:00:00Z are asynchronous. Preserve the Boliden-price current_price input and 0.25 ratio; actual tracked NEXA quote is $12.51. Spot-linked value is indicative, not the future minority tender entitlement, which uses a pre-closing 20-day VWAP. Preserve FCF-yield method despite the conflicting legacy EV/EBITDA instruction; commodity/peer work remains unresolved. — investors.boliden.com (accessed 2026-09-14)
  2. September 14 Modeledge reference Boliden price SEK525.6 and USDSEK9.74902; tracked NEXA price separately $12.51 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
  3. Market references refreshed September 10: Boliden SEK 546.8 (15:29:55Z), USDSEK 9.66682 (21:44:13Z); the NEXA tracked quote is separately $13.14. — investors.boliden.com (accessed 2026-09-10)
  4. Reviewed August 27 control/tender communications, the linked public artifact and Q2 call financial/operating commentary. The 0.25 ratio applies to a future pre-closing 20-day Boliden VWAP, not today's cash entitlement. Q2 call confirms unchanged 2026 guidance, Cajamarquilla recovery, $180M Cerro Pasco total investment with $31M in 2026, and the $131M SUNAT payment already made; no tax recovery asset is added. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-10)
  5. Nexa's August 5, 2026 2Q26 release reported US$908M of revenue, US$98M of net income, US$286M of adjusted EBITDA, unchanged 2026 operating/capex guidance, and the Cerro Lindo silver stream stepdown effective in May. — nexaresources.com
  6. Nexa's June 30, 2026 interim financial statements reported 2Q26 net income attributable to Nexa shareholders of US$68.6M, 132.439M weighted average shares, US$86.3M of quarterly D&A, US$111.2M of quarterly operating cash flow after interest and tax, and US$88.7M of quarterly PP&E additions. — sec.gov
  7. Nexa's official 2026-2028 outlook provides production ranges, smelting sales ranges, 2026 cost assumptions, and 2026 capex guidance. — ri.nexaresources.com
  8. Official LME price tables showed zinc at US$3,737/t cash settlement and US$3,693/t three-month on August 5, 2026. — westmetall.com
  9. Live silver spot references around August 6, 2026 were near US$62.5/oz. — apmex.com
  10. Boliden agreed to exchange 0.250 newly issued Boliden shares for each Nexa share held by Votorantim; the minority cash tender price will reference the same fixed ratio and Boliden's 20-day pre-closing VWAP. — investors.boliden.com
  11. The Boliden-linked reference uses the BOL.ST quote of SEK 550.40 and USD/SEK rate of 9.5729 returned by Financial Modeling Prep at 2026-09-01 13:44 UTC. Boliden's official share page provides current and historical share-price information. — investors.boliden.com

Built with Modeledge MCP

Connect your MCP client to research filings and earnings calls, then build a living financial model like this one.

Connect your agent