AppLovin continuing-operations DCF valuation

AppLovin Corporation (APP)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-10-05
USD
Updated Oct 5, 2026 · Revised 6 times
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AppLovin continuing-operations DCF valuation

Ten-year DCF updated for Q2 2026. Revenue and EBITDA remained strong and Q3 guidance implies an 83% adjusted EBITDA margin, while Q2 free cash flow was held down by tax and interest timing. The base keeps the prior long-term revenue fade while normalizing FCF conversion and refreshing cash, debt, shares, and price.

as of 2026-10-05

Fair value
$396.33
Upside
40.9%
Enterprise value
$133.2k
2026 FCF
$4.7k
2035 FCF
$13.1k
Implied 2026 FCF multiple
28.5

Balance sheet

3,053.31USDm
3,515.07USDm

Market

281.29USD/share
Latest APP quote · updated Oct 7, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Operating forecast

2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E
Free cash flow margin
RevenueUSDm

Share count

335.00m

Valuation

10.0%
3.3%

Conservative DCF forecast

2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E
Revenue$8.1k$10.4k$13.0k$15.6k$17.8k$19.4k$20.6k$21.7k$22.5k$23.2k
Free cash flow$4.7k$6.1k$7.6k$9.0k$10.2k$11.1k$11.6k$12.2k$12.7k$13.1k
FCF margin58.0%59.0%58.5%58.0%57.5%57.0%56.5%56.5%56.5%56.5%

Sources

  1. October 5 Model Edge reference APP price $281.97, refreshed 2026-10-05T15:03:36.312646-06:00. Price-only inputs refresh market-relative outputs; BRUN also refreshes its established peer-relative multiple. (accessed 2026-10-05)
  2. October 5: reference price rose 5.13% to $281.97. New coverage discusses the already-reported Unity litigation development and analyst commentary; no new quantified AppLovin guide was verified. Preserve the existing ten-year DCF, revenue/FCF paths, 10% base discount rate, 3.25% terminal growth, $3.515B debt and 335M diluted shares. Do not extrapolate working-capital/tax-driven quarterly FCF or capitalize a court headline without business effects. — benzinga.com (accessed 2026-10-05)
  3. Additional source for the October 5 review; see dated evidence note. — investors.applovin.com (accessed 2026-10-05)
  4. October 2 Model Edge reference APP quote $268.22, refreshed 2026-10-02T17:10:06.894816-06:00. Price alone is not evidence to change operating forecasts; BRUN separately refreshes the existing peer-relative valuation. (accessed 2026-10-02)
  5. October 2 reference shares fell 4.65% to $268.22. Dow Jones reports the San Francisco court denied AppLovin's temporary restraining-order request against Unity on October 1. This is a credible contemporaneous competitive/legal development; underlying claims remain unresolved. Primary docket/order was not retrieved, and allegations of data misuse are not adjudicated facts. No quantified customer loss, AXON impairment, revenue/margin guidance change or litigation charge is established. Retain the existing DCF revenue/FCF paths, 10% discount rate and 3.25% terminal growth; record the competitive risk without an arbitrary price-driven haircut. — marketscreener.com (accessed 2026-10-02)
  6. Q2 revenue was $1.924B, free cash flow was $863.3M, ending shares were 335M, and Q3 guidance was $2.055B-$2.085B of revenue with about an 83% adjusted EBITDA margin. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-09)
  7. The Q2 2026 Form 10-Q filed August 5, 2026 covers the quarter ended June 30, 2026 and supports the reported revenue, balance-sheet, net income, and EPS anchors. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-09)

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