LyondellBasell Hawk normalized EV/EBITDA valuation

LyondellBasell Industries (LYB)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-06-15
USD
Updated Jun 20, 2026
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LyondellBasell Hawk normalized EV/EBITDA valuation

as of 2026-06-15

Fair value per share
$59.13
Upside/downside to current price
-6.4%

Balance sheet

$2.64$B
$12.94$B

Earnings power

$4.20$B

Share count

323.0millions

Valuation assumptions

7.0

Normalized EV/EBITDA valuation bridge

FY2026E
Normalized adjusted EBITDA$4.20
EV / EBITDA multiple7.0
Enterprise value$29.40
Gross debt and financings$12.94
Cash and liquid investments$2.64
Net debt$10.30
Equity value$19.10
Diluted shares323.0
Fair value per share$59.13

Sources

  1. Q1 2026 earnings release reported sales of $7.197B, net income of $125M, diluted EPS of $0.38, weighted average diluted shares of 323M, EBITDA of $568M, and EBITDA excluding identified items of $615M. — modeledge.ai
  2. Q1 2026 business results reported cash and liquid investments of $2.639B, total liquidity of $7.289B, Q1 capex of $269M, and 323M common shares outstanding at March 31, 2026. — modeledge.ai
  3. The 2025 Form 10-K balance sheet reported current maturities of long-term debt of $588M, short-term debt of $226M, long-term debt of $12.124B, and 322.1M ordinary shares outstanding at December 31, 2025. — modeledge.ai
  4. The 2025 Form 10-K debt footnote reported total long-term loans, notes and other debt of $12.712B, including $588M of current maturities. — modeledge.ai
  5. The 2025 Form 10-K and 2026 Q1 release show a depressed 2025 EBITDA base, with 2025 adjusted EBITDA excluding LCM, gain/loss on sale and asset write-downs of $2.383B, 2024 EBITDA of $3.460B, and Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA annualizing to about $2.46B. — modeledge.ai
  6. Main portfolio LYB Hawk row used a last price of $63.17 on June 15, 2026.

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