Samsara (IOT) - Graham-Dodd SaaS growth-multiplier valuation

Assumptions as of 2026-08-18

USD

Updated Aug 18, 2026

as of 2026-08-18

Max justified price per share

$12.57

Upside vs market

-67.8%

Decayed 7-yr CAGR

19.0%

Justified multiple of normalized FCF

28.46

Relative growth decay per year

15.0%

Discount rate

10.0%

Entry revenue growth (FY2026 YoY)

29.6%

Mature FCF margin (AFTER charging SBC in full)

14.0%

Net cash incl. marketable securities ($M)

804$M

Market price ($)

$39.00

FY2026 revenue ($M)

1,619$M

Diluted shares (M)

577.1M

	FY2026A
FY2026 revenue	1,619
Decayed 7-yr CAGR	19.0%
Yr-7 revenue multiple	3.37
Terminal multiple	16.44
Justified mult. of normalized FCF	28.46
Normalized FCF	227
Enterprise value	6,450
+ Net cash	804
= Equity value	7,254
Implied EV/revenue	3.98

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