Samsara (IOT) - Graham-Dodd SaaS growth-multiplier valuation

Assumptions as of 2026-09-03

USD

Updated Sep 3, 2026 · Revised 1 time

as of 2026-09-03

Max justified price per share

$11.48

Upside vs market

-70.4%

Decayed 7-yr CAGR

16.7%

Justified multiple of normalized FCF

24.05

Relative growth decay per year

15.0%

Discount rate

10.0%

Entry revenue growth (FY2027 guided 26%)

26.0%

Mature FCF margin (AFTER charging SBC in full)

14.0%

Net cash incl. ST and LT investments ($M, 2026-08-01)

1,326$M

Market price ($)

$38.75

FY2026 revenue ($M)

1,619$M

Diluted weighted shares (M, Q2 FY27)

590.5M

	FY2026A
FY2026 revenue	1,619
Decayed 7-yr CAGR	16.7%
Yr-7 revenue multiple	2.95
Terminal multiple	15.90
Justified mult. of normalized FCF	24.05
Normalized FCF	227
Enterprise value	5,450
+ Net cash	1,326
= Equity value	6,776
Implied EV/revenue	3.37

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