Cleveland-Cliffs normalized EBITDA valuation

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-10-23
USD
Updated Oct 23, 2026 · Revised 7 times
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Cleveland-Cliffs normalized EBITDA valuation

Normalized EV/EBITDA valuation for Cleveland-Cliffs refreshed after Q2 2026 results. The model values equity by applying a cyclical steel EV/EBITDA multiple to normalized adjusted EBITDA, then subtracting net debt and dividing by shares outstanding. Base assumes 16.75 million tons of normalized shipments, $180/ton of normalized adjusted EBITDA, a 6.0x EV/EBITDA multiple, and Q2 2026 net debt. The quarter showed improving EBITDA and cash flow but still cyclical losses, so the normalized margin lift is modest and shipment assumptions remain within management's maintained 16.5-17.0 million ton full-year guide.

as of 2026-10-23

Fair value / share
$18.44
Upside / downside
32.7%
Normalized adjusted EBITDA ($M)
$3,015
Enterprise value ($M)
$18,090
$13.90
Latest CLF quote · updated Oct 23, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Capital structure

$7,568
570.6

Operating assumptions

$180
16.75

Valuation assumptions

6.0

Sources

  1. October 23 scoped CLF review evidence; see refresh-context analysis and limitations. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-23)
  2. October 23 Model Edge regular-session reference $13.9, retrieved 2026-10-23T14:56:51.323416-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time or an asserted official closing print. Financial anchors retain separately disclosed dates. (accessed 2026-10-23)
  3. October 22: investigated -6.99% daily move through indexed issuer activity, release discovery and web searches. No newly verified quantified issuer change supports altering the existing operating assumptions. Preserve methodology and financial anchors; update regular-session reference price and market-relative outputs. Exact company-specific price attribution remains unconfirmed. (accessed 2026-10-22)
  4. Regular-session reference $13.05 retrieved 2026-10-22T15:22:05.381254-06:00. Quote updates alone do not change operating assumptions. (accessed 2026-10-22)
  5. October 20 Model Edge regular-session reference $13.65, refreshed 2026-10-20T15:09:45.836556-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time or an asserted official closing print; financial anchors retain their stated dates. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-20)
  6. October 20 Q3 10-Q cover reports 570.584966M shares outstanding, replacing 570.527556M. Preserve normalized 16.75M tons, $180/ton, 6x and $7,568M book net debt already updated yesterday. The debt note distinguishes $7,712M principal from $7,645M carrying value; retain existing carrying-value methodology and flag the $67M fee/discount distinction. No repurchases in Q3/YTD. With $5,687M attributable book equity and $13.65 reference price, P/B is about 1.37x, above the user's 1.2x monitoring threshold; the legacy P/B instructions do not replace the bound EBITDA valuation. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-20)
  7. October 19 Model Edge reference CLF price $14.1; provider/refresh timestamp 2026-10-19T15:24:42.941291-06:00. Retrieval timestamps are not trade timestamps or asserted official closing prints. Financial anchors retain their separately disclosed dates. (accessed 2026-10-19)
  8. October 19, 2026: Q3 release and call report $612M adjusted EBITDA, $224M operating cash flow and $152M capex ($72M FCF), with $715M Q4 EBITDA guidance. September 30 long-term debt $7,645M less cash $77M gives $7,568M net debt, down $65M. Shift the base and existing bear/bull net-debt stresses down $65M, preserving their relative spreads. Keep normalized 16.75M tons, $180 EBITDA/ton, 6x and 570.527556M-share historical anchor. Management's conditional >$4B 2027 EBITDA, partial contract negotiations and planned asset sales are not realized recurring earnings or cash. HRC reference $1,368/ton exceeds the user's $900 alert threshold; Q3 shipments 4.150M tons remain above the 4.0M alert. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-19)
  9. Additional supporting source for the October 19 scoped review. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-19)
  10. Additional supporting source for the October 19 scoped review. — tradingeconomics.com (accessed 2026-10-19)
  11. October 9 Model Edge reference CLF price $12.98, refreshed 2026-10-09T15:02:40.746503-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this quote; operating-assumption decisions are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-09)
  12. October 9 +6.48% investigated. Reporting describes Stelco Hamilton cold-rolling/coating idling from October 9, previously announced in September, and management's conditional willingness to recall workers if a Canada-US trade deal is reached. Company statements reported by AP say overall Stelco tonnage is unchanged as production/product mix shifts toward Lake Erie. This does not quantify consolidated EBITDA, savings or realized asset proceeds, nor prove the cause of today's rally. Preserve 16.75M normalized tons, $180 EBITDA/ton, 6x, $7.633B net debt and 570.527556M shares; do not mechanically cut consolidated tonnage or assume a trade agreement. — apnews.com (accessed 2026-10-09)
  13. October 5 Model Edge reference CLF price $12.2, refreshed 2026-10-05T15:03:35.145589-06:00. Price-only inputs refresh market-relative outputs; BRUN also refreshes its established peer-relative multiple. (accessed 2026-10-05)
  14. October 5: reference price rose 7.77% to $12.20. No new verified guidance, completed asset sale or tariff change explains the move. Two new director Forms 4 disclose 3,487 common shares each as quarterly retainers (6,974 total); immaterial routine issuance does not justify selectively replacing the complete share denominator. Preserve normalized 16.75M tons, $180 EBITDA/ton, 6x, $7.633B net debt and 570.527556M shares pending a complete capital bridge. — clevelandcliffs.com (accessed 2026-10-05)
  15. Additional source for the October 5 review; see dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-05)
  16. September 28 Modeledge reference CLF stock price $11.22, retrieved 2026-09-28T16:46:38.260095-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. Operating assumptions are unchanged except separately documented updates. (accessed 2026-09-28)
  17. September 28: investigated the 7.88% decline; no verified new quantified earnings or shipment revision. Reported Monessen fatality has no verified financial impact or price attribution. Preserve 16.75M tons, $180/ton, 6x, $7,633M net debt and 570.527556M shares. Rename only the legacy last_price input/reference to current_price to enable quote maintenance. — streetinsider.com (accessed 2026-09-28)
  18. CLF traded at $12.25 at the 2026-07-27 close per the market data provider result used by Modeledge.
  19. Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 2026 release reported $5.2B of revenue, $230M operating cash flow, $286M adjusted EBITDA, $3.1B liquidity, 4.0M net tons shipped, and maintained full-year 2026 steel shipment guidance of approximately 16.5-17.0M net tons. — clevelandcliffs.com
  20. Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 2026 Form 10-Q reported $70M cash, $7.703B long-term debt, 570.527556M common shares outstanding, and $3.1B liquidity at June 30, 2026. — clevelandcliffs.com
  21. The Q2 2026 Form 10-Q reported steel product shipments of 4.025M net tons, average selling price of $1,124 per ton, and higher steel pricing partly offset by lower shipment volumes. — clevelandcliffs.com
  22. Cleveland-Cliffs' investor results page lists the Q2 2026 earnings release, 10-Q, presentation, webcast, and transcript as available materials for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. — clevelandcliffs.com

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