Cleveland-Cliffs normalized EBITDA valuation

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-07-28
USD
Updated Jul 28, 2026
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Cleveland-Cliffs normalized EBITDA valuation

Normalized EV/EBITDA valuation for Cleveland-Cliffs refreshed after Q2 2026 results. The model values equity by applying a cyclical steel EV/EBITDA multiple to normalized adjusted EBITDA, then subtracting net debt and dividing by shares outstanding. Base assumes 16.75 million tons of normalized shipments, $180/ton of normalized adjusted EBITDA, a 6.0x EV/EBITDA multiple, and Q2 2026 net debt. The quarter showed improving EBITDA and cash flow but still cyclical losses, so the normalized margin lift is modest and shipment assumptions remain within management's maintained 16.5-17.0 million ton full-year guide.

as of 2026-07-28

Fair value / share
$18.33
Upside / downside
49.6%
Normalized adjusted EBITDA ($M)
$3,015
Enterprise value ($M)
$18,090
$12.25

Capital structure

$7,633
570.5

Operating assumptions

$180
16.75

Valuation assumptions

6.0

Sources

  1. CLF traded at $12.25 at the 2026-07-27 close per the market data provider result used by Modeledge.
  2. Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 2026 release reported $5.2B of revenue, $230M operating cash flow, $286M adjusted EBITDA, $3.1B liquidity, 4.0M net tons shipped, and maintained full-year 2026 steel shipment guidance of approximately 16.5-17.0M net tons. — clevelandcliffs.com
  3. Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 2026 Form 10-Q reported $70M cash, $7.703B long-term debt, 570.527556M common shares outstanding, and $3.1B liquidity at June 30, 2026. — clevelandcliffs.com
  4. The Q2 2026 Form 10-Q reported steel product shipments of 4.025M net tons, average selling price of $1,124 per ton, and higher steel pricing partly offset by lower shipment volumes. — clevelandcliffs.com
  5. Cleveland-Cliffs' investor results page lists the Q2 2026 earnings release, 10-Q, presentation, webcast, and transcript as available materials for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. — clevelandcliffs.com

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