Duolingo 2028 normalized FCF valuation

Duolingo Inc. (DUOL)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-08-10
USD
Updated Aug 10, 2026 · Revised 2 times
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Duolingo 2028 normalized FCF valuation

2028 normalized free-cash-flow exit valuation maintained after reviewing Q2 2026 materials. Management reaffirmed $1.207B of FY2026 revenue, raised its adjusted EBITDA outlook to $320M, and reported 23% DAU growth, but bookings growth slowed to 8% and Q2 FCF margin was 26.3%. The base case continues to use 15% growth in 2027 and 2028, a 28% normalized FCF margin, and a 20x exit multiple; this refresh updates source provenance and the current market-price input.

as of 2026-08-10

Fair value per share
$161.74
Upside / downside to current price
19.4%

Balance sheet

1,314

Cash flow

28.0%

Discounting

11.0%
2.5

Market

$135.44
Latest DUOL quote · updated Aug 11, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Multiple

20

Revenue

15.0%
15.0%
1,207

Share count

50.7

Sources

  1. Q2 revenue was $298.5M, total bookings were $289.1M, free cash flow was $78.6M, FY2026 guidance called for $1.207B of revenue and $320M of adjusted EBITDA, and fully diluted shares outstanding were approximately 50.7M. — storage.googleapis.com (accessed 2026-08-10)
  2. Duolingo filed its Q2 2026 Form 10-Q with June 30, 2026 cash and cash equivalents of $1.181B, short-term investments of $133M, Q2 free cash flow of $78.6M, and Q2 share repurchases of $44.4M. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-10)

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