BRUN scaled unit economics valuation

Boost Run, Inc. (BRUN)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-07-14
USD
Updated Jul 14, 2026
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BRUN scaled unit economics valuation

Bull-case steady-state valuation for Boost Run based on disclosed TCV-to-capex economics rather than an ARR peer multiple. The default assumes BRUN reaches $2.5B of annual revenue and earns a mid-teens owner free-cash-flow margin after GPU replacement spending, operating cash costs, financing costs, and tax. It is a mature-state valuation, not a forecast of when that scale is reached.

as of 2026-07-14

Implied value per share
$40.07
Upside / downside
56.0%
Implied equity value
$3.2k
Mature owner FCF
$388.4
Mature owner FCF margin
15.5%
Annual GPU replacement spend
$1.6k
Deployed capital required
$5.4k
Capital above 2026 plan
$4.2k
Scale vs 2026E ARR
6.3

Capital intensity

3.0years

Scale

$2,500$M

Unit economics

3.0%
10.0%
12.0%
1.40

Valuation

$25.68$/share
80.8M
12.0%
25.0%

Value per share vs mature revenue and TCV / capex

Mature annual revenue1.201.301.401.601.80
$1,000 $M$7.74$12.20$16.03$22.25$27.08
$1,500 $M$11.61$18.30$24.04$33.37$40.62
$2,000 $M$15.48$24.40$32.06$44.49$54.17
$2,500 $M$19.34$30.51$40.07$55.62$67.71
$3,000 $M$23.21$36.61$48.09$66.74$81.25

Value per share vs required yield and operating cash cost

Target owner FCF yield5.0%10.0%12.0%18.0%25.0%
8.0%$80.42$65.91$60.11$42.70$22.38
10.0%$64.33$52.73$48.09$34.16$17.91
12.0%$53.61$43.94$40.07$28.46$14.92
15.0%$42.89$35.15$32.06$22.77$11.94
20.0%$32.17$26.36$24.04$17.08$8.95

Sources

  1. June 2026 investor presentation: 2026E ARR of $400M+, capex of $1.1B-$1.2B, TCV/capex of 1.2x-1.4x, FCF margin of 15%-20%, and roughly three-year customer and GPU contract durations. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-14)
  2. Q1 2026 actuals: $10.956M revenue, $1.579M cost of revenue, $2.658M SG&A, $4.723M D&A, $4.667M colocation lease cost, and $188.91M of operating and finance lease liabilities at March 31. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-14)
  3. The September 2025 transaction announcement described more than 75% adjusted EBITDA margins, high-teens FCF margins, and approximately 70% capex-to-revenue conversion. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-14)
  4. June 1, 2026 basic shares were 31.896M Class A plus 29.533M Class B; the model uses a higher diluted share count to allow for earnouts, warrants, and future funding. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-14)
  5. BRUN reference price of $25.68 on July 14, 2026. — nasdaq.com (accessed 2026-07-14)

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