Q2 2026 guidance-aware FCF yield valuation for Alpha Metallurgical Resources. The company reduced metallurgical shipment guidance to 13.2-14.0 Mt and raised met cash-cost guidance to $103-$107 per ton after fewer shipments, persistent soft met markets, higher supply costs, and reduced DTA efficiency. Base uses guidance midpoints, July 30 contracted pricing, June net cash, and an unchanged 11% target FCF yield.
as of 2026-08-07
Fair value
$86.38
Upside
-43.8%
Normalized FCF
$84.5
Implied equity value
$1.1k
Met realization
$134.75
Capital allocation
158.00$M
40.00$M
Corporate
2.5%
4.00$M
56.00$M
Market
$153.80$/share
Latest AMR quote · updated Aug 11, 2026 2:00 PM MDT
150.00$/ton
Operations
1.20Mt
28.00$M
105.00$/ton
13.60Mt
Valuation
11.0%
Sources
Q2 2026 results and revised guidance: met shipments 13.2-14.0 Mt, thermal shipments 1.0-1.4 Mt, met cash costs $103-$107 per ton, capex $148M-$168M, and affiliate contributions $35M-$45M. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-07)
July 30 commitments covered 9.5 Mt of met coal at $128.17 per ton and 1.3 Mt of thermal coal at $75.94 per ton. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-07)
June cash plus short-term investments less debt equaled about $327.1M; July 31 shares outstanding were 12.679045M. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-07)
DTA storm damage reduced terminal efficiency and contributed to the shipment-guidance cut; the company is using alternative East Coast capacity. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-07)
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