AMR 2026 FCF yield valuation

Sources

1. October 23 scoped AMR review evidence; see refresh-context analysis and limitations. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-23)
2. October 23 Model Edge regular-session reference $163.6, retrieved 2026-10-23T14:56:53.683336-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time or an asserted official closing print. Financial anchors retain separately disclosed dates. (accessed 2026-10-23)
3. September 29 Modeledge reference AMR stock price $166, retrieved 2026-09-29T15:15:03.758328-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. No operating or intrinsic valuation inputs changed in this review. (accessed 2026-09-29)
4. September 29: investigated the 5.43% decline with METC/HCC weakness. Company filing/transcript and web discovery did not establish a new quantified issuer catalyst. Preserve $150/ton normalized unpriced met realization, 13.6Mt met shipments, $105/ton cash cost and 11% FCF yield. DTA throughput/replacement/insurance, soft market and below-$400M liquidity monitoring remain open; daily price alone does not reset normalized FCF. (accessed 2026-09-29)
5. September 14 Form SD exhibit reports 2025 resource payments, including $40.252145M of payroll-related/pension/reclamation amounts; this is historical disclosure, not new 2026 debt. Preserve normalized FCF valuation and outstanding peer/commodity checks. (accessed 2026-09-14)
6. September 14 Modeledge reference AMR share price $197.85 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
7. Definitive Q2 2026 release reported net loss of $12.3M, adjusted EBITDA of $25.6M, operating cash flow of $39.9M, capex of $45.1M, and 3.5M tons sold. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-12)
8. Revised 2026 guidance: metallurgical shipments 13.2-14.0 Mt, thermal shipments 1.0-1.4 Mt, met cash costs $103-$107 per ton, capex $148M-$168M, and affiliate contributions $35M-$45M. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-12)
9. July 30 commitments covered 9.5 Mt of met coal at $128.17 per ton and 1.3 Mt of thermal coal at $75.94 per ton. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-12)
10. June cash plus short-term investments less debt equaled about $327.1M; July 31 shares outstanding were 12.679045M. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-12)
11. Form 10-Q balance sheet shows June 30 cash of $307.6M, short-term investments of $30.9M, and total long-term debt including current portion of $11.4M, consistent with the net cash input. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-12)
12. DTA storm damage reduced terminal efficiency and contributed to the shipment-guidance cut; the company is using alternative East Coast capacity while replacement and insurance clarity develops. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-12)