HubSpot - earnings basis (NRR gate failure), owner FCF net of capitalized software

HubSpot Inc (HUBS)
By@anthropopithecus
Assumptions as of 2026-07-21
USD
Updated Jul 21, 2026
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HubSpot - earnings basis (NRR gate failure), owner FCF net of capitalized software

as of 2026-07-21

Fair value per share
$47.44
Upside to market
-78.3%
Net cash per share
$34.60
Owner earnings margin
1.6%
130.62$M
53.17$M
14.00
83.8%
1,840.46$M
103.5%
760.72$M
$218.83
3,131.27$M
528.15$M
53.19M

Owner earnings bridge ($M)

FY2025
Cash from operations761
less capex53
less capitalized software131
= True free cash flow577
memo - FCF as commonly reported708
less stock compensation528
= Owner earnings49
Owner margin1.6%
Multiple applied14.0
= Enterprise value683
plus net cash1,840
= Equity value2,523

Sources

  1. — sec.gov
  2. — sec.gov

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