SharonAI contracted run-rate peer valuation

SharonAI Holdings Inc. (SHAZ)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-10-07
USD
Updated Oct 7, 2026 · Revised 10 times
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SharonAI contracted run-rate peer valuation

Equity market-cap-to-contracted-run-rate valuation updated for Q2 2026. The $1.345B annualized base sums disclosed multi-year contracts, including the new six-year NVIDIA compute collaboration. A 35% execution and financing discount and 10% dilution cushion reflect the gap between $1.9M of quarterly revenue and the capital-intensive deployment required to realize the $8.8B contracted backlog.

as of 2026-10-07

Fair value per share
$80.46
Upside or downside
78.3%
Implied equity value ($B)
$3.41
Fully ramped contracted annualized revenue ($B)
$1.345
Applied market cap to run-rate multiple
2.53
CRWV-NBIS-BRUN peer blend
3.89
Economic common-equivalent shares (M)
38.5
Current economic market capitalization ($B)
$1.74
Current market cap to run-rate
1.29
Undiscounted peer value per share
$136.17
Fully ramped public run-rate anchor ($B)
$0.734

Capital structure

38.478M shares
10%
0.000M shares

Market data

$45.12$/share
Latest SHAZ quote · updated Oct 7, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Peer inputs

$0.40$B
$1.4$B
$18.5$B
$46.6$B
$8.0$B
$45.6$B

SharonAI assumptions

$1.345$B

Valuation

35%

Sources

  1. October 7 Model Edge reference SHAZ quote $45.12, refreshed 2026-10-07T15:02:59.869273-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this price; valuation changes are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-07)
  2. October 7 price -6.23%. Four new424B3 accessions have identical first50,000characters and repeat September24auditor change and October1GPUfacility disclosure; reviewed operative summaries once, not entire402,823-character repeated agreements. $356Mcapacity(150M A/206M B),42months,7.25%step-up/9.95%,initial parent guarantee with conditional release were already known. No evidence that all capacity was funded; resale/convertible registration totals are not additive fresh issuance. No new operating catalyst verified. Preserve1.3453Bannualizedcontractvalue,35%executionhaircut,10%dilution and38.478328Mcommon; $80.463167 unchanged. Hold peer basis until comparable FDshares/ARR are reconciled. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-07)
  3. Additional supporting source for October 7 review; see the dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-07)
  4. Additional supporting source for October 7 review; see the dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-07)
  5. Additional supporting source for October 7 review; see the dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-07)
  6. October 5 Model Edge reference SHAZ price $47.7, refreshed 2026-10-05T15:03:35.119985-06:00. Price-only inputs refresh market-relative outputs; BRUN also refreshes its established peer-relative multiple. (accessed 2026-10-05)
  7. October 5: reference price fell 6.12% to $47.70. No new verified issuer-specific cause or guidance was found. The already-reviewed $356M committed equipment facility is not proof of a full draw. Preserve $1.3453B fully ramped contracted annualized revenue, 35% execution discount, 10% dilution allowance and 38.478328M common shares. Peer market-cap refresh remains held pending the previously required full economic-share and ARR-basis reconciliation; do not mix mismatched peer definitions. — sharonai.com (accessed 2026-10-05)
  8. October 2 Model Edge reference SHAZ quote $50.81, refreshed 2026-10-02T17:10:06.611504-06:00. Price alone is not evidence to change operating forecasts; BRUN separately refreshes the existing peer-relative valuation. (accessed 2026-10-02)
  9. September 28 GPU financing agreement provides $356M committed capacity ($150M A/$206M B), 42-month bullet maturity from initial utilization, A coupon initially 7.25% stepping to 9.95%, B 9.95%, collateral and loan-to-value covenants. Parent guarantee initially exists with a release mechanism after A repayment; do not describe it as wholly nonrecourse from inception. A mandatory prepayment mechanism uses customer acceptance deposits. Facility commitment is not proof of full funding or new ARR. Keep $1.345B contract annualization, 35% execution discount, 10% dilution cushion and 38.478328M common; financing/deployment risk is not eliminated. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-02)
  10. September 24: a new 8-K reports HoganTaylor dismissed September 20 and EY engaged September 23. Prior auditor reports had no adverse/disclaimer opinions; no disagreements were reported, with the previously disclosed internal-control material weakness noted as a reportable event. This is a real auditor change, distinct from the earlier amendment correcting an item heading. The S-8 registers 1.44M additional plan shares (1.2M reserve increase plus 0.24M recycled reserve); plan capacity is not issued dilution and August reserve expansion was already known. Keep 38.478328M common, zero residual prefunded warrants and the 10% future cushion. Synchronized fully diluted peer-capitalization/ARR refresh remains open. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-24)
  11. September 24 reference SHAZ price $56.4; quote refresh timestamp 2026-09-24T15:15:28.929474-06:00. This changes market-relative outputs; price alone does not change operating assumptions. (accessed 2026-09-24)
  12. Supporting primary filing for the September 24 source review described above. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-24)
  13. September 23 subsequent capital review resolves the prefunded-warrant estimate: September 17 Form 4 and 13D/A confirm 2,674,823 warrants exercised September 15 at $0.0001 and termination of the original 6,374,823 warrant. The other 3,700,000 were exercised June 30 and already included in reported common shares. Latest holder bridge has 38,341,987 Class A shares; add the unchanged reported 136,341 Class B shares to obtain 38.478328M common shares, with zero remaining prefunded warrants. Replace old 35.803505M common plus incorrect 2.276345M residual estimate (38.079850M total). This corrects 398,478 missing economic shares; exercise itself does not create new economic dilution beyond the prefunded claim. Keep 35% execution discount, 10% dilution cushion, contracted annualization and existing peer assumptions; peer full-share/cap refresh remains open. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-23)
  14. June 30 and August 5 shares were 35667164 Class A plus 136341 Class B; the 370 dollar warrant exercise cash is consistent with 3700000 June exercises at 0.0001 dollars. September holder filing provides the subsequent exercise bridge. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-23)
  15. September 23 VAST DataEnclave collaboration describes customer-controlled AI infrastructure without quantified revenue, bookings, pricing or incremental committed ARR. The amended 8-K corrects the disclosure item from 4.01 to 7.01 and is not an auditor change. Retain the existing risk-adjusted contract ARR model; unverified stock-specific cause for the 8.67% fall. Prior prefunded warrant and peer full-share reconciliation remain open; historical review incomplete. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-23)
  16. September 23 reference SHAZ price $57.73; quote timestamp 2026-09-23T15:21:17.757003-06:00. Market price alone does not change operating value. (accessed 2026-09-23)
  17. No confirmed company-specific cause for the daily decline. Preserve contract annualization, 35% execution discount and 10% dilution buffer. Residual prefunded warrants and peer capitalization reconciliation remain unresolved; do not count design capacity as deployments. (accessed 2026-09-14)
  18. September 14 Modeledge reference SHAZ share price $51.91 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
  19. September 11 Modeledge reference share price $59.41. The share quote changes market-relative outputs, not operating forecasts or intrinsic fair value. (accessed 2026-09-11)
  20. Reviewed August 20 customer acceptance, August 21 indenture, August AGM, August 27 resale supplement and September 4 Rafay release, plus Q2 operating/deployment commentary and 10-Q/A capital disclosures. The $950M customer contract is already in the model; Rafay's up-to-150,000-GPU platform design is not deployed capacity or new contracted ARR. The supplemental indenture modifies existing $350M notes; the plan adds 1.2M reserved shares, not immediate issuance. The 10-Q/A corrects 2025 comparatives. Retain the existing peer valuation and estimated pre-funded balance pending reconciliation; no confirmed cause for the +5.02% daily price move. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-11)
  21. Q2 2026 revenue was $1.9M; contracted TCV reached $8.8B; disclosed projects imply about $1.345B of fully ramped annualized revenue; cash was $1.861B and convertible notes were about $1.007B. — storage.googleapis.com (accessed 2026-08-06)
  22. Peer market capitalizations and SHAZ price were refreshed in a single August 6, 2026 market-data snapshot. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-08-06)

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