Twist Bioscience guidance-aware optimistic FY2031 EBITDA valuation

Twist Bioscience Corporation (TWST)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-08-05
USD
Updated Aug 5, 2026 · Revised 2 times
Download Excel

Twist Bioscience guidance-aware optimistic FY2031 EBITDA valuation

Guidance-aware but optimistic discounted terminal-value framework anchored to FY2026 guidance. The central case assumes a 21% revenue CAGR through FY2031, above the CAGR required to satisfy management's more-than-double organic revenue objective but below the recent 23%-25% growth pace. The former 25% central case is retained as the bull case. The August 2026 equity offering is included pro forma in both net cash and dilution.

as of 2026-08-05

Fair value per share
$112.43
Upside / downside
0.9%
Present implied equity value ($B)
$8.22
Present value enterprise value ($B)
$7.79
FY2031 terminal enterprise value ($B)
$12.43
FY2031 revenue ($B)
$1.18
FY2031 adjusted EBITDA ($B)
$0.36
FY2031 diluted shares (B)
0.0732
Current pro forma EV / FY2026 revenue
15.1
Implied FY2031 operating expense ratio
30.0%

Capital structure

1.0%
0.0695B shares
0.0658B shares
$0.434$B

Market reference

$111.47$/share

Operating assumptions

$0.4565$B
60.0%
21.0%
30.0%

Valuation

9.5%
35
5.15

Sources

  1. Q3 FY2026 revenue was $118.4M, up 23%; DSPS grew 39%; gross margin was 52.8%; FY2026 revenue guidance rose to $456M-$457M; Q4 revenue guidance was $123M-$124M; and Q4 adjusted EBITDA breakeven was reiterated. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-05)
  2. Twist's May 2026 Investor Day targeted more than doubling revenue organically from FY2027 through FY2031, adjusted EBITDA positivity in FY2027 and beyond, long-term gross margin above 60%, and more than $1B of annual revenue capacity. — investors.twistbioscience.com (accessed 2026-08-05)
  3. On the Q3 FY2026 call, management expected triple-digit order growth from AI-enabled drug discovery in both FY2026 and FY2027 and reiterated the long-term gross-margin goal. — investors.twistbioscience.com (accessed 2026-08-05)
  4. Twist priced 3.125M new shares at $96 for $300M gross proceeds, with an option for 468,750 additional shares; proceeds are intended for R&D, manufacturing expansion, product offerings and general corporate purposes. — investors.twistbioscience.com (accessed 2026-08-05)
  5. The final offering prospectus stated 62,674,150 common shares outstanding as of June 30, 2026 and disclosed outstanding options, RSUs and performance-based RSUs. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-05)

Built with Modeledge MCP

Connect your MCP client to research filings and earnings calls, then build a living financial model like this one.

Connect your agent