Twist Bioscience guidance-aware optimistic FY2031 EBITDA valuation

Sources

1. October 7 Model Edge reference TWST quote $155.65, refreshed 2026-10-07T15:03:01.039172-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this price; valuation changes are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-07)
2. October 7 price -6.78%. New CEO Form4 covers4,548 existing shares sold October5 under a June15 plan, not a new award or operating forecast. Prior media reports of ARK selling/profit-taking are context, not verified causal attribution for today's move. No issuer operating revision found; preserve FY26revenue456.5M,base21%CAGR,30%terminalmargin,35x,9.5%discount and existing dilution assumptions; $112.428921 unchanged. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-07)
3. October 6 Model Edge reference TWST quote $166.97, refreshed 2026-10-06T15:02:52.006217-06:00. Price changes refresh market-relative outputs; evidence-supported valuation changes are separately described. (accessed 2026-10-06)
4. October 6: price fell 18.55% to $166.97. News reports attribute selling pressure to ARK reductions, insider sales and profit-taking; a precise causal attribution is unconfirmed and no new operating-guidance reduction was verified. Preserve FY2026 revenue $456.5M, FY2027-31 base CAGR 21%, terminal EBITDA margin 30%, 35x terminal multiple, 9.5% discount rate and existing offering/dilution assumptions. Price movement does not itself change intrinsic value. — investing.com (accessed 2026-10-06)
5. Additional supporting source for the October 6 review; see the dated evidence note. — investors.twistbioscience.com (accessed 2026-10-06)
6. October 5 Model Edge reference TWST price $205, refreshed 2026-10-05T15:03:35.796446-06:00. Price-only inputs refresh market-relative outputs; BRUN also refreshes its established peer-relative multiple. (accessed 2026-10-05)
7. October 5: reference price rose 8.66% to $205. New ownership forms describe existing vested units, tax-cover sales and a small preplanned CEO sale; they do not establish new operating guidance or a new award program. The September Lilly TuneLab announcement was already reviewed and discloses no quantified incremental revenue. No new verified company-specific catalyst supports changing FY2026 revenue $456.5M, FY2027-31 base CAGR 21%, terminal EBITDA margin 30%, 35x or 9.5% discount rate. Retain offering-adjusted cash/share assumptions and existing dilution allowance. — investors.twistbioscience.com (accessed 2026-10-05)
8. Additional source for the October 5 review; see dated evidence note. — investors.twistbioscience.com (accessed 2026-10-05)
9. September 24: shares rose 16.11%. Read the September 16 Lilly TuneLab partnership release: antibody characterization and preferred service access are described, but no committed order value, revenue or margin guidance is provided. The older partnership is plausible background, not a verified exclusive cause of today's move. Keep $456.5M FY2026 revenue, 21% central CAGR, 30% terminal EBITDA margin, 35x terminal multiple and existing dilution. The offering-option/share bridge and older source window remain open. — investors.twistbioscience.com (accessed 2026-09-24)
10. September 24 reference TWST price $184.03; quote refresh timestamp 2026-09-24T15:15:28.761625-06:00. This changes market-relative outputs; price alone does not change operating assumptions. (accessed 2026-09-24)
11. September 15 conference reaffirmed Q4 adjusted-EBITDA breakeven, AI-order growth and 5-20 day conversion. The Anthropic pilot was already included in prior expectations; FY2027 guidance is deferred to November. Keep 21% central revenue CAGR, 25% bull, 30% terminal margin, 35x and explicit dilution; no new forecast change justified. Provider metadata uses a generic Global Healthcare Conference title while the transcript introduction names Baird; event identification should be checked before treating it as a second independent event. Overallotment/old source backlog remains unresolved. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-15)
12. September 15 reference TWST share price $138.1; provider quote update 2026-09-15T15:01:38.67949-06:00. Stock-price movement alone does not change the operating forecast. (accessed 2026-09-15)
13. No confirmed company-specific source supports a forecast change. Price slider expanded to contain the current quote; offering/overallotment and historical review remain unresolved. (accessed 2026-09-14)
14. September 14 Modeledge reference TWST share price $134.75 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
15. Q3 FY2026 revenue was $118.4M, up 23%; DSPS grew 39%; gross margin was 52.8%; FY2026 revenue guidance rose to $456M-$457M; Q4 revenue guidance was $123M-$124M; and Q4 adjusted EBITDA breakeven was reiterated. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-05)
16. Twist's May 2026 Investor Day targeted more than doubling revenue organically from FY2027 through FY2031, adjusted EBITDA positivity in FY2027 and beyond, long-term gross margin above 60%, and more than $1B of annual revenue capacity. — investors.twistbioscience.com (accessed 2026-08-05)
17. On the Q3 FY2026 call, management expected triple-digit order growth from AI-enabled drug discovery in both FY2026 and FY2027 and reiterated the long-term gross-margin goal. — investors.twistbioscience.com (accessed 2026-08-05)
18. Twist priced 3.125M new shares at $96 for $300M gross proceeds, with an option for 468,750 additional shares; proceeds are intended for R&D, manufacturing expansion, product offerings and general corporate purposes. — investors.twistbioscience.com (accessed 2026-08-05)
19. The final offering prospectus stated 62,674,150 common shares outstanding as of June 30, 2026 and disclosed outstanding options, RSUs and performance-based RSUs. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-05)