Meta Platforms five-year FCF DCF valuation

Sources

1. September 28 Modeledge reference META stock price $715.62, retrieved 2026-09-28T16:46:37.976034-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. Operating assumptions are unchanged except separately documented updates. (accessed 2026-09-28)
2. September 28 Form 144: Olivan proposes sale of 1,575 existing shares under a November 2025 10b5-1 plan. No issuer financing or new financial guidance. Investigated the 4.79% decline against broader AI/equity weakness; no quantified change supports revising DCF assumptions. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-28)
3. September 24: read all 12 indexed items since the September 9 completed cutoff: the full Connect keynote and 11 ownership filings. Muse expands computer use and commerce integrations, but no incremental revenue, margin, capex or guaranteed contract economics are quantified. Keep the FCF DCF assumptions. Cox/Olivan ownership filings document planned or executed secondary sales under earlier Rule 10b5-1 plans, not primary capital raises; do not count Form 144 notices again as new shares or cash. The keynote does not establish an Innodata contract. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-09-24)
4. September 24 reference META price $777.59; quote refresh timestamp 2026-09-24T15:15:28.774815-06:00. This changes market-relative outputs; price alone does not change operating assumptions. (accessed 2026-09-24)
5. Supporting primary filing for the September 24 source review described above. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-24)
6. Q2 2026 revenue was $60.801B, operating cash flow was $31.862B, free cash flow was $0.784B, and capital expenditures including finance lease principal payments were $31.08B. — sec.gov
7. Meta guided Q3 2026 revenue to $61B-$64B, full-year 2026 expenses to $165B-$169B, and full-year 2026 capital expenditures including finance lease principal payments to $130B-$145B. — sec.gov
8. At June 30, 2026, cash and marketable securities were $90.260B and long-term debt was $83.664B. — sec.gov
9. Q2 2026 diluted weighted-average shares were 2.566B; Class A and Class B shares outstanding were 2.548B as of July 24, 2026. — sec.gov
10. Management attributed stronger ad pricing to demand and ad performance improvements, while higher cost of revenue and R&D reflected infrastructure and AI-related spending. — sec.gov
11. The Q2 2026 earnings call emphasized that AI investments are improving advertising performance and that Meta is investing aggressively in compute infrastructure to meet AI demand. — s21.q4cdn.com
12. Meta introduced Muse on September 8 with free and paid access. The launch supplies no quantified new revenue, adoption or margin guidance; existing FCF DCF assumptions are retained. — about.fb.com (accessed 2026-09-09)