Fortuna Mining FCF yield valuation

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-06-30
USD
Updated Jun 30, 2026
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Fortuna Mining FCF yield valuation

as of 2026-06-30

Fair value per share
$9.73
Upside / downside
-10.2%
Normalized FCF ($M)
$393
Implied enterprise value ($M)
$2454
FY2027E FCF ($M)
$396
33.0%
$10.83
Latest FSM quote · updated Aug 11, 2026 1:59 PM MDT
$4200
$1900
$493
303.0
$70.00
16.0%
$3500
FY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
Caylloma silver equivalent sales (koz)
Caylloma cash cost ($/AgEq oz)
Corporate G&A and other cash costs ($M)
D&A ($M)
Gold cash cost ($/oz)
Gold production (koz)
Lead production (Mlb)
Other revenue ($M)
Royalties, smelting and site G&A ($M)
Silver production (Moz)
Sustaining and growth capex ($M)
Working capital release / (use) ($M)
Zinc production (Mlb)

FCF bridge ($M)

FY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
Gold revenue$1100$1134$1197
Silver revenue$74$77$77
Lead revenue$28$29$29
Zinc revenue$73$75$75
Other revenue$20$20$22
= Revenue$1295$1335$1400
- Cash operating costs$292$305$325
- Royalties, smelting and site G&A$155$165$178
- Corporate G&A and other cash costs$95$98$102
= Adjusted EBITDA$753$767$795
- D&A$185$190$195
= EBIT$568$577$600
- Cash tax$188$190$198
+ Working capital release / (use)$0$0$0
= Operating CFO before capex$566$576$597
- Sustaining and growth capex$165$180$220
= FCF$401$396$377

Operating drivers

FY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
Gold price ($/oz)$4200$4200$4200
Silver price ($/oz)$70.00$70.00$70.00
Lead price ($/t)$1900$1900$1900
Zinc price ($/t)$3500$3500$3500
Gold production (koz)262.0270.0285.0
Silver production (Moz)1.11.11.1
Lead production (Mlb)33.034.034.0
Zinc production (Mlb)46.047.047.0
Gold cash cost ($/oz)$935$950$965
Caylloma cash cost ($/AgEq oz)$18.50$18.80$19.20
Target EV / FCF yield16.0%16.0%16.0%

Sources

  1. Fortuna's 2026 guidance calls for 281,000 to 305,000 gold-equivalent ounces, gold cash costs of $895 to $1,000 per ounce, Caylloma silver-equivalent cash costs of $17.1 to $20.1 per ounce, and consolidated AISC of $1,830 to $1,975 per gold-equivalent ounce. — fortunamining.com
  2. Fortuna's Q1 2026 release reported $342.5M of sales, $53.6M of net income, $218.8M of adjusted EBITDA, $212.4M of free cash flow from ongoing operations, $665.9M of cash, and $172.5M of convertible debt at March 31, 2026. — globenewswire.com
  3. Q1 2026 mine disclosure provides production and realized price context for gold, silver, lead, and zinc. — fortunamining.com
  4. Current share price was refreshed from Modeledge market data for FSM on June 30, 2026. — modeledge.ai
  5. Gold and silver price inputs are intentionally exposed as sliders and should be refreshed against live commodity references before relying on the valuation. — tradingeconomics.com
  6. Lead and zinc price inputs are exposed as sliders and can be cross-checked against LME metal reference pages. — lme.com

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