Monday.com ex-cash SaaS peer valuation

Monday.com ex-cash SaaS peer valuation

Conservative longer-term SaaS peer valuation for monday.com. The model values FY2028 operating economics using a blend of EV/revenue and EV/free-cash-flow, discounts the result back 1.5 years, and excludes cash from equity value. The $870M repurchase authorization was fully used by Q2 2026, so the base now uses the reported post-buyback share count and assumes no additional buybacks. Bear and bull scenarios capture AI displacement and durable AI-enabled adoption.

as of 2026-10-22

Fair value / share
$117.57
Upside / downside
10.4%
FY2028 normalized free cash flow
$467
Present value of operating business
$5,225
Implied ex-cash equity value
$5,225
Pro forma shares after buybacks
44.4
Cash retained after modeled buybacks
$1,073
Current ex-cash EV/FY2026 revenue
2.49
Current guided ex-cash FCF yield
7.8%
FY2026 growth plus guided FCF margin
38.7%

AI risk

100%

Balance sheet

$1,073$M

Capital allocation

$80.00
$0$M

Market

$106.53
Latest MNDY quote · updated Oct 23, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Operating forecast

24.0%
$1,470$M
16.0%
14.0%

Share count

44.4M shares

Valuation

12.0%
1.5
60%
16
2.75

Sources

  1. October 22 Form 4 reports 2,000 existing shares sold October 20 under an August 31 plan and 1,914 RSUs awarded August 5 with August 2027 vesting. These are not a new issuer cash raise or a complete dilution bridge. Preserve FY2028 revenue/FCF blend, 44.441875M diluted-share proxy and zero future buybacks; investigate 6.70% rally without imposing an unsupported operating revision. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-22)
  2. Regular-session reference $106.86 retrieved 2026-10-22T15:22:06.129304-06:00. Quote updates alone do not change operating assumptions. (accessed 2026-10-22)
  3. October 20 Model Edge regular-session reference $100.86, refreshed 2026-10-20T15:09:47.513826-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time or an asserted official closing print; financial anchors retain their stated dates. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-20)
  4. October 20 price rose 7.96%. Market reporting describes a broad software rotation; this is reported market context, not a new issuer forecast. Company filing/transcript discovery found no newer quantified guide. Preserve the FY2028 60% revenue/40% FCF blend, normalized margin and zero future buybacks after the $870M authorization was exhausted. Seven-peer and historical capital review remain open; SaaS row remains unbound. — stockstory.org (accessed 2026-10-20)
  5. Additional supporting source for October 20 scoped review. — ir.monday.com (accessed 2026-10-20)
  6. October 15 Model Edge regular-session MNDY reference $94.3, refreshed 2026-10-15T15:04:35.671547-06:00. Retrieval time is not trade time. Scope and separate financial-anchor changes are described in refresh context. (accessed 2026-10-15)
  7. October 12 Model Edge regular-session reference MNDY price $84.76, refreshed 2026-10-12T15:02:21.435494-06:00. Price refresh changes market-relative outputs; BRUN separately reprices its existing relative valuation. (accessed 2026-10-12)
  8. Reported Barclays downgrade and unchanged $100 target; analyst judgment is not company guidance. — tipranks.com (accessed 2026-10-12)
  9. October 8 Model Edge reference MNDY price $88.91, refreshed 2026-10-08T15:00:48.626508-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this quote; intrinsic assumptions only change on evidence. (accessed 2026-10-08)
  10. September 28 Modeledge reference MNDY stock price $79.05, retrieved 2026-09-28T16:46:37.339517-06:00; a post-session reference snapshot, not an asserted official close. Operating assumptions are unchanged except separately documented updates. (accessed 2026-09-28)
  11. September 28: investigated the 5.51% decline. No verified new quantified issuer guidance revision. Preserve discounted revenue/FCF multiple blend and live zero future-buyback assumption after the $870M authorization was exhausted; older curated $1.05B language is historical. Seven-peer comparison remains outstanding. The separate SaaS row remains unbound. — streetinsider.com (accessed 2026-09-28)
  12. Software-market gains provide context but no confirmed change to company forecasts. Preserve zero future buybacks and existing revenue/FCF method. Peer and historical-source checks remain incomplete. (accessed 2026-09-14)
  13. September 14 Modeledge reference MNDY share price $96.105 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
  14. September 10 Modeledge reference share price $85.17; market price alone is not used to revise operating forecasts. (accessed 2026-09-10)
  15. September 10 mover/press checks found no verified new fundamental catalyst. The active model assumes zero future buybacks after the $870M authorization was exhausted; do not reinstate the stale $1.05B future-buyback narrative. (accessed 2026-09-10)
  16. Q2 2026 revenue was $365M; FY2026 guidance remained $1.466B-$1.474B revenue and $280M-$290M adjusted free cash flow. The full $870M repurchase authorization had been used, cash and securities were about $1.07B, and Q2 diluted shares were 44.4M. — ir.monday.com (accessed 2026-08-10)
  17. monday.com reported Q1 2026 revenue of $351.3M, 24% growth, $102.8M adjusted free cash flow, and guided FY2026 revenue to $1.466B-$1.474B with $280M-$290M adjusted free cash flow. — ir.monday.com (accessed 2026-07-22)
  18. The July 22 restructuring update maintained 19%-20% revenue growth and 19%-20% adjusted FCF margin while raising non-GAAP operating margin guidance to approximately 15%. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-22)
  19. The 2026 proxy reported 42,906,944 ordinary shares outstanding as of May 31, 2026. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-22)
  20. FY2025 revenue was $1.232B, adjusted free cash flow was $322.7M, the majority of revenue remained monday work management, and growth was driven by renewals, expansion, multi-product adoption, AI adoption, and new customer acquisition. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-22)
  21. The SaaS Capital Index reported a June 2026 public SaaS median valuation near 3.2x annualized run-rate revenue. — saas-capital.com (accessed 2026-07-22)
  22. A July 17, 2026 survey of 143 public SaaS companies reported a median revenue multiple near 3.07x and average revenue growth near 14.36%. — publicsaascompanies.com (accessed 2026-07-22)
  23. Current peer checks indicated Elastic near 2.9x forward revenue, GitLab near 4.0x, and Workday near 3.1x, with profitable peers generally spanning low-teens to upper-teens EV/FCF. — stockanalysis.com (accessed 2026-07-22)
  24. Q2 release reports 44,441,875 weighted-average diluted shares, $853.402M cash and $219.353M securities, $364.621M revenue, $52.344M adjusted FCF, and completed $870M buyback authorization. Guidance remains $1.466B-$1.474B revenue/$280M-$290M adjusted FCF. The model uses diluted shares and assumes no further repurchases. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-08)

Built with Modeledge MCP

Connect your MCP client to research filings and earnings calls, then build a living financial model like this one.

Connect your agent