Rocket Companies driver-based EPS valuation

Rocket Companies Inc. (RKT)
By@hypertonx
Assumptions as of 2026-08-07
USD
Updated Aug 7, 2026 · Revised 1 time
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Rocket Companies driver-based EPS valuation

Q2 2026 refresh tying Rocket Companies earnings power to mortgage market size, purchase and refinance share, gain-on-sale margin, non-origination platform revenue, Redfin contribution, and adjusted net income margin. Q2 reached record purchase and refinance share and the best profitability in four years, while the model retains a normalized FY2027 earnings basis and P/E valuation wrapper.

as of 2026-08-07

Fair value
$19.73
Upside
37.8%
FY2027E adjusted EPS
$0.88
FY2027E closed loan volume
$265.2
FY2027E adjusted revenue
$13.9k
Implied market cap
$56.1k
Current P/E on FY2027E
16.3
KBW 2027 EPS value at target P/E
$22.28
Adjusted net income needed for $17 PT
$2.1k
Adjusted net income needed for $21 PT
$2.7k
Adjusted net income needed for $24 PT
$3.0k
Adjusted net income needed for $25 PT
$3.2k

Capitalization

2,844.00M

Earnings power

FY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
Adjusted net income margin

Market

14.32$/sh
Latest RKT quote · updated Aug 11, 2026 2:00 PM MDT

Monetization

FY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
Gain-on-sale margin
Incremental Redfin contribution$M
Non-origination platform revenue$M

Mortgage market

FY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
Purchase mortgage market$B
Refinance mortgage market$B

Rocket share

FY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
Rocket purchase share
Rocket refinance share

Valuation

22.50

Operating driver bridge

FY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
Purchase market$1.5k$1.6k$1.7k$1.8k
Refinance market$350.0$650.0$850.0$900.0
Total mortgage market$1.9k$2.2k$2.5k$2.7k
Rocket purchase share5.0%6.2%6.8%7.5%
Rocket refinance share15.8%14.3%18.0%20.0%
Closed loan volume$130.3$189.0$265.2$311.3
Gain-on-sale margin2.82%2.60%2.85%2.90%
Origination revenue$3.7k$4.9k$7.6k$9.0k
Non-origination platform revenue$2.8k$5.8k$6.0k$6.2k
Incremental Redfin contribution$0.0$150.0$300.0$450.0
Adjusted revenue$6.5k$10.9k$13.9k$15.7k
Adjusted net income margin8.8%16.0%18.0%20.0%
Adjusted net income$569.8$1.7k$2.5k$3.1k
Adjusted EPS$0.20$0.61$0.88$1.10

FY2027E fair value sensitivity

Refinance mortgage market14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%22.0%
600.00 $B$16.93$17.42$17.91$18.40$18.88
750.00 $B$17.79$18.40$19.00$19.61$20.22
850.00 $B$18.35$19.04$19.73$20.42$21.11
1,000.00 $B$19.21$20.02$20.83$21.64$22.45
1,200.00 $B$20.34$21.32$22.29$23.27$24.24

Sources

  1. Q2 2026 adjusted revenue was $2.761B, adjusted net income was $441M, adjusted EPS was $0.16, and Q3 adjusted-revenue guidance was $2.5B-$2.7B. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-07)
  2. Q2 total closed origination volume was $49.1B, total gain-on-sale margin was 2.48%, purchase share was 6.2%, and refinance share was 14.3%. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-07)
  3. Q2 adjusted diluted weighted-average shares were 2.844B. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-07)
  4. KBW public summary included 2026E, 2027E and 2028E EPS estimates of $0.69, $0.99 and $1.12. — investing.com (accessed 2026-07-10)
  5. Barron's bullish write-up cited Rocket's path toward 8% purchase share and materially higher refinance reach. — barrons.com (accessed 2026-07-10)

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