Apogee Enterprises FY2027 earnings valuation

Sources

1. October 6 Model Edge reference APOG quote $40, refreshed 2026-10-06T15:02:50.564327-06:00. Price changes refresh market-relative outputs; evidence-supported valuation changes are separately described. (accessed 2026-10-06)
2. October 6: price rose 12.17% to $40. The newly created current model already incorporates today's FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.00-$3.40 and $3.20 midpoint at 12.5x, so fair value stays $40. Re-read the earnings release and reviewed the filed 10-Q financial statements, debt, acquisition, restructuring, subsequent-event and liquidity sections. Q2 diluted shares 20.901M, cash $36.529M and debt $335.545M agree with the model's supporting facts. H1 operating cash flow $43.259M less capex $17.796M is $25.463M before acquisitions. Groglass closed September 18, debt-funded, for up to EUR62.5M including up to EUR10M contingent consideration; do not treat the August balance sheet as post-Groglass or add acquisitions to already-inclusive EPS guidance. Conflicting D&A figures remain a limitation for a detailed cash-flow bridge. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-06)
3. Additional supporting source for the October 6 review; see the dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-06)
4. Reported facts, October 6, 2026: FY2027 adjusted diluted EPS guidance is $3.00-$3.40; sales guidance $1.46-$1.50 billion includes Kalwall and Groglass; interest approximately $15 million, tax rate approximately 26%, capex $35-$40 million. The $3.20 base EPS is the arithmetic midpoint, adopted as an analyst assumption. — apog.com
5. Q2 adjusted EPS $1.17 versus GAAP EPS $1.07; first-half adjusted EPS $1.74 versus GAAP $1.61; Q2 diluted weighted-average shares 20.901 million. The model uses that share count only to illustrate aggregate earnings and equity value; it is not a forecast of FY2027 diluted shares. — sec.gov
6. Q2 call: Metals pricing pulled forward some volume; legacy Glass demand remains soft; Kalwall and Groglass FY2027 adjusted EPS contributions expected to be modest and already included in the revised outlook. Do not annualize Q2 EPS or add acquisition synergies again to guidance. — apog.com
7. FY2026 adjusted EPS was $3.47, versus $4.97 in FY2025. FY2026 operating cash flow $122.5 million less capex $27.3 million equals $95.2 million cash flow before acquisitions; this is a historical cash-conversion check, not the forecast being capitalized. — apog.com
8. Groglass closed September 18, 2026 at up to approximately $71.8 million including contingent consideration, after the August 29 balance sheet. Quarter-end debt $335.545 million and cash $36.529 million therefore do not represent a fully updated post-Groglass capital structure. — ir.apog.com
9. Analyst judgments, not company guidance or researched peer multiples: bear $2.60 EPS at 9x; base $3.20 at 12.5x; bull $3.60 at 15x. The 12.5x base represents an 8% earnings yield and balances cyclical construction exposure, input-cost and acquisition risk against pricing/productivity execution and differentiated products. No scenario probabilities are assigned.
10. The recurring-cost haircut defaults to zero, accepting management's adjusted EPS as a starting proxy. Increase it to charge earnings for exclusions you believe recur. The model does not separately project free cash flow, terminal growth, acquisitions, future buybacks, or dividends, and is a present valuation on FY2027 earnings, not a discounted future price target.
11. Reference APOG quote was $39.76 with provider timestamp 2026-10-06T14:11:40Z (8:11:40 AM America/Denver). Market-relative outputs can change as Modeledge refreshes price; the valuation does not use price to determine EPS or the fair multiple.