Wolfspeed post-restructuring revenue valuation

Sources

1. October 7 Model Edge reference WOLF quote $31.37, refreshed 2026-10-07T15:03:03.60395-06:00. Market-relative outputs use this price; valuation changes are separately explained. (accessed 2026-10-07)
2. October 7: reviewed 8-K and release on proposed Department of War OSC financing. Nonbinding/conditional senior secured delayed-draw commitment up to $1.5B: initial $600M refinances first-lien 2030 debt and fees; remaining $900M funds qualifying capital projects. Proposed 30-year term and Treasury-plus premium, possible initial five-year PIK, require definitive documents, diligence, consents and government/appropriations conditions. Minimum $750M Qualifying Sources includes $150M private equity (at least $50M before effectiveness), plus $600M potentially equity/conversions/excess cash; substantial convertible equitization efforts and warrants up to 7.5% fully diluted introduce material dilution risk. Neither full loan proceeds nor final warrant dilution is booked before funding/final terms. Preserve $600M revenue, 2.5x equity-sales method and existing denominator; intrinsic $28.958088 unchanged. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-07)
3. Additional supporting source for October 7 review; see the dated evidence note. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-10-07)
4. October 6 Model Edge reference WOLF quote $31.83, refreshed 2026-10-06T15:02:52.487684-06:00. Price changes refresh market-relative outputs; evidence-supported valuation changes are separately described. (accessed 2026-10-06)
5. October 6: price fell 5.07% to $31.83. No verified new guidance reduction or company-specific cause was established. Recent wafer-product coverage provides no quantified revenue/profitability bridge. Preserve the current $600M revenue and 2.5x equity-sales framework while explicitly retaining the unresolved post-reorganization capital-structure problem; current 51.799M weighted-average share anchor is not a verified fully diluted share count. — investor.wolfspeed.com (accessed 2026-10-06)
6. October 5 Model Edge reference WOLF price $33.53, refreshed 2026-10-05T15:03:37.173491-06:00. Price-only inputs refresh market-relative outputs; BRUN also refreshes its established peer-relative multiple. (accessed 2026-10-05)
7. October 5: reference price declined 4.96% to $33.53 after Friday’s 13.2% rise. Today’s Zacks coverage discusses Friday’s move and older product/demand themes; it is not a new operating forecast. No new verified catalyst supports changing $600M normalized revenue or 2.5x equity sales. Preserve the current model pending the already-flagged complete post-reorganization diluted share reconciliation; weighted-average 51.799M shares are not a verified current fully diluted register. — nz.finance.yahoo.com (accessed 2026-10-05)
8. October 2 Model Edge reference WOLF quote $35.28, refreshed 2026-10-02T17:10:08.249373-06:00. Price alone is not evidence to change operating forecasts; BRUN separately refreshes the existing peer-relative valuation. (accessed 2026-10-02)
9. October 2: reference price rose 13.19% to $35.28. Company-specific filing/transcript discovery and primary issuer-news/web checks did not establish a new quantified operating catalyst. October 2 Forms 4 report 12,998 and 5,252 shares withheld for award taxes, not management open-market buying. Retain $600M normalized revenue, 2.5x sales and the existing denominator pending the full economic-share/convertible/warrant reconciliation; the price move does not resolve that issue. — investor.wolfspeed.com (accessed 2026-10-02)
10. Additional supporting source for the October 2 WOLF review; see the first dated evidence note. — modeledge.ai (accessed 2026-10-02)
11. No newly verified operating evidence supports an intrinsic revision. ARS extraction failed; full issued/weighted/prefunded/warrant/convertible reconciliation remains open. Preserve existing model denominator pending a matched enterprise-to-equity bridge. (accessed 2026-09-14)
12. September 14 Modeledge reference WOLF share price $23.96 retrieved after the regular U.S. close. Quote updates affect market-relative outputs; forecast changes, if any, are separately identified. (accessed 2026-09-14)
13. September 11 Modeledge reference share price $25.92. The share quote changes market-relative outputs, not operating forecasts or intrinsic fair value. (accessed 2026-09-11)
14. September 11 proxy review identifies a proposed 2026 employee purchase plan and continued beneficial-ownership treatment of 2M pre-funded warrants and convertible instruments. Plan reserves are not issued shares. Existing 51.799M diluted weighted-average shares remain unreconciled to 52.995396M issued shares, pre-funded warrants, Renesas warrants and note dilution; retain the existing value pending that reconciliation rather than inventing a partial denominator. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-09-11)
15. September 10 Modeledge reference share price $25.17; market price alone is not used to revise operating forecasts. (accessed 2026-09-10)
16. September 10 price/mover review found no verified company-specific catalyst for the 7.73% daily decline. Preserve $600M revenue and 2.5x price/sales; existing 51.799M quarterly weighted shares are not a completed post-restructuring economic-dilution reconciliation. (accessed 2026-09-10)
17. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue was $150M, cash and short-term investments were about $1.1B, and fiscal Q1 2027 revenue guidance was $140M-$160M; 51.799M diluted weighted-average shares were reported for the quarter. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-08-19)
18. Wolfspeed reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $150.2 million, adjusted EBITDA of negative $61.7 million, and 39.3 million diluted weighted-average shares following its restructuring. — sec.gov (accessed 2026-07-18)